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The authors address the question of the prediction of large failures, busts, or system collapse, and the necessary concepts related to risk quantification, minimization and management. Answering this question requires a new approach since predictions using standard financial techniques and statistical distributions fail to predict or anticipate crises. The key points are that financial markets, systems, trading and manoeuvres are not just about money, debt, stocks, instruments and assets but reflect the actions and motivations of humans, which includes the presence or absence of learning effects.
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