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The Real And Financial Implications Of The Global Saving Glut: A Three-Country Model

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Executive Summary

The model presented in this paper has two objectives. First, it models global imbalances in a simple way while conserving real and financial approaches. This double approach is necessary because Global Imbalances are due to the conjunction of financial and real phenomena: the increase in the price of commodities, the accumulation of foreign reserves by the Asian central banks, the limited absorption capacity of the OPEC countries, the insufficient development of the Asian financial system and the perception of better returns in the US. The second objective is to model the global saving glut hypothesis and to show its implications.

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