Data Management

Uncertainty And Economic Activity: Evidence From Business Survey Data

Download Now Date Added: Jun 2010
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Using partly confidential business survey data from the U.S. and Germany in structural VARs, the authors find that positive innovations to business uncertainty lead to prolonged declines in economic activity. In contrast, their high-frequency impact is small. They find no evidence of the "Wait-and-see"-effect - large declines of economic activity on impact and subsequent fast rebounds - that the recent literature associates with positive uncertainty shocks. Rather, positive innovations to business uncertainty have effects similar to negative business confidence innovations.