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US Post-War Monetary Policy: What Caused The Great Moderation?

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Executive Summary

Using indirect inference based on a VAR the authors confront US data from 1972 to 2007 with a standard New Keynesian model in which an optimal timeless policy is substituted for a Taylor rule. They find the model explains the data both for the Great Acceleration and the Great Moderation. The implication is that changing variances of shocks caused the reduction of volatility. Smaller Fed policy errors accounted for the fall in inflation volatility. Smaller supply shocks accounted for the fall in output volatility and smaller demand shocks for lower interest rate volatility.

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