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What Explains Global Exchange Rate Movements During The Financial Crisis?

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Executive Summary

A striking and unexpected feature of the financial crisis has been the sharp appreciation of the US dollar against virtually all currencies globally. The paper finds that negative US-specific macroeconomic shocks during the crisis have triggered a significant strengthening of the US dollar, rather than a weakening. Macroeconomic fundamentals and financial exposure of individual countries are found to have played a key role in the transmission process of US shocks: in particular countries with low FX reserves, weak current account positions and high direct financial exposure vis-?-vis the United States have experienced substantially larger currency depreciations during the crisis overall, and to US shocks in particular.

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