What Explains Risk Premia In Crude Oil Futures?
This paper studies the existence of risk premia in crude oil futures prices with simple regression and Bayesian VAR models. It also studies the importance of three main risk premia models in explaining and forecasting the risk premia in practice. Whilst the existence of the premia and the validity of the models can be established at certain time points, it turns out that the choice of sample period has a considerable effect on the results. Hence, the risk premia are highly time-varying. The paper also establishes a model, based on speculative positions in the futures markets, which has some predictive power for future oil spot prices.