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Scenario planning is a forecasting tool that helps managers and organizations better understand the trends driving the future competitive environment. The first step in scenario planning is developing scenarios. These are not predictions. Instead, they are plausible and often provocative stories about how a series of trends could come together, interact and result in future outcomes. The purpose of scenarios is not to identify the most likely future - which is good because humans are bad at predicting the future. The purpose is to create a series of potential alternative futures that capture a range of possibilities including good, bad, likely and unlikely events.
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