Application of the Bayesian Network to Machine Breakdowns Using Witness Simulation

This paper explores the use of Bayesian network modeling of machine breakdowns within a cement manufacturing plant. The Bayesian network modeling is introduced using Hugin software and then implemented into a Witness Simulation model using historical data, expert knowledge and opinions. The models simulate 3 parameters of the machine based on life consumption and usage of each parameter, the developed Witness model produces a probability failure rate based on these parameter usages. The failure probability developed by Witness is implemented using the Chain Rule; this is compared with the probability for failure based on the Bayesian network model.