Counterfactual Analysis Of Bank Mergers

Estimating the impact of bank mergers on credit granted and on interest rates requires a framework that allows to disentangle the effect of changes in market structure generated by mergers from the effects arising from changes in banks' operating environment. However, most of the literature on the impact of bank mergers relies on a simple differential analysis of the relevant variables. The author proposes a new methodology. It relies on the estimation of a structural model of the credit market. Using this model the author is able to derive a counterfactual scenario, considering the pre-merger market equilibrium together with the post-merger environment.