"Future Guidance"

Forecasting in turbulent markets is a significant challenge with far reaching consequences for performance, resource allocation, reputation and shareholder value. Yet relatively straightforward measures can greatly improve forecasting success. Recognising the role of risk and probability is paramount in putting business forecasting and future guidance on the same footing as other fields, such as, meteorology and epidemiology. Equally important is the need to monitor forecast accuracy rather than "Exceeding Target" as a better measure of forecasting success. However, many companies need to consider the fundamental basis of forecasting before embarking on process change, such as what factors really drive value creation and a more balanced approach to financial and non-financial measures, leading and lagging indicators.