Predicting the Number of Mobile Subscribers: An Accurate Forecasting System and Its Application
Source: Columbia University
Forecasting economic quantities can bring high benefits to business planning and operation. To provide accurate forecasts and to investigate the factors behind the trends, the authors present a new prediction system in this paper. Applying it to the Number of Mobile Subscribers (NMS) in the United States, China, and Germany, they observe interesting differences between saturated and emerging markets. Moreover, they find that prediction accuracy highly increases when external factors are systematically included in the prediction model, while factors with ambiguous effects are removed and the time lag between a factor's change and using it for prediction is optimized.