Time-Trend In Spatial Dependence: Specification Strategy In The First-Order Spatial Autoregressive Model

The purpose of this paper is to analyze if spatial dependence is a synchronic effect in the first-order Spatial AutoRegressive model, SAR(1). Spatial dependence can be not only contemporary but also time-lagged in many socio-economic phenomena. In this paper, the authors use three Moran-based space-time autocorrelation statistics to evaluate the simultaneity of this spatial effect. A simulation study shed some light upon these issues, demonstrating the capacity of these tests to identify the structure (only instant, only time-lagged or both instant and time-lagged) of spatial dependence in most cases.