Research company GlobalData said broadband and 4G networks are the main thing keeping the Indonesian telecoms industry afloat as we inch closer to the 2020s. Customers were largely abandoning traditional voice and pay-TV bundles in favor of plans that gave them better access to mobile data and fixed broadband services.

Indonesia has one of the highest populations of any country in Asia and is now an emerging digital market thanks to increasingly cheaper smartphone options and a large number of young people.

“Mobile revenue will account for 81.9% of total telecom revenue in 2023, driven by increasing adoption of high-speed mobile Internet services,” they wrote in their Indonesia Country Intelligence Report.

“3G will continue to be the most adopted mobile technology throughout the forecast period. While rising demand for high-speed data services and LTE network investments from operators will drive 4G subscription growth over the forecast period.”

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GlobalData’s report ‘Indonesia Country Intelligence Report’ predicts that by 2023, revenue that telecommunications companies make from voice plans will fall by a marginal compound annual growth rate of nearly 4%.

“Monthly mobile voice usage is also expected to gradually drop from 65 minutes in 2018 to 45 minutes in 2023 due to rising substitution of traditional mobile voice service with over-the-top (OTT) communication services supported by growing availability of 4G services,” they wrote in their study.

The study also found precipitous declines in Indonesia’s pay-TV market and forecast a steep decline until 2023 as more people turned to a variety of broadband options.

“Monthly mobile data usage will grow from 1.5GB in 2018 to 6.8GB by 2023, in line with the rising consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones,” they said.

“Mobile data’s share of total revenues is expected to increase from 49.1% in 2018 to 54.0% by the year-end 2023, rising adoption of high-speed mobile data services supported by operators’ investments on the expansion of 3G/4G networks.”

GlobalData expects fixed broadband revenue to expand at a CAGR of 3.7% through 2023, due in no small part to government efforts aimed at improving fixed broadband penetration and investing in fiber-to-the-home networks.

Just three mobile operators — Telkomsel, Indosat Ooredo, and 3 Indonesia — controlled nearly 85 percent of the mobile subscriptions market. GlobalData added that most companies will shift to “offering data-centric services and invest in network expansions and next-generation technologies such as LTE-A and 5G.”

“Despite 3G being the leading mobile technology in Indonesia during the forecast period, 4G will be the fastest growing technology, recording a CAGR of 23.5% over the period as operators continue to expand their 4G networks,” said GlobalData telecom analyst Deepa Dhingra.

“For instance, Indosat Ooredoo is aiming to extend 4G coverage to 87% of the population by 2019. 4G will account for 44.2% share of the total mobile subscriptions in 2023, compared to 47.9% of 3G subscriptions.”