Take a look at what META Group is saying on integration and development strategies research trends for 2003/2004.
1. Through 2004+, development environments will transition to integrated life-cycle and development environments (ILDEs) as life-cycle features are incorporated: modeling, testing, version, and change control by 2003/04; project portfolio management by 2006; and integrated process by 2007. Through 2005/06, ILDEs will become more tightly integrated with application servers, resulting in consolidation of the development tool market.
2. By 2004, Web services technology and service-oriented architectures will promote construction of reusable components. Through 2005/06, the complexity of componentised, distributed applications will spur creation and adoption of pattern-driven development frameworks. By 2007, model-driven approaches will represent a significant minority of development efforts.
3. During 2003/04, .Net will gain market share and acceptance as a competing enterprise platform to J2EE. During 2004/05, open source application servers will gain share in the J2EE market, forcing further vendor consolidation. By 2006, Linux will become the preferred platform for J2EE execution. By 2006/07, focus will shift from basic infrastructure to business frameworks, reducing the distinction between large middleware infrastructure and packaged application vendors.
4. During 2003/04, the project portfolio management market will consolidate around ERP, project management, and professional services automation vendors. By 2005/06, most standalone players will be merged into suites or life-cycle development environment offerings, reflecting changes in process and organisational strategies. By 2006/07, 60% of Global 2000 organisations will run IT more like a business by implementing technologies to concurrently manage resources, projects, and assets.
5. Through 2003/04, Global 2000 organisations will optimise e-business efforts for B2B and B2C sell-side capabilities and relationships by tightly coupling business analytics with execution/transaction systems and portals. Consortium Net markets will consolidate by industry, with survivors augmenting efforts to provide vertically oriented process outsourcing and managed services (e.g., planning, logistics, collaboration, payment/settlement, analytics) that will not be fully integrated until 2005/06.
6. Through 2005, packaged solutions for automating and managing cross-vertical industry and specialised (niche) business processes will increasingly be available from a broad set of vendors and deliver higher-value process improvements (e.g., real-time business analytics, cross-application exception processing, process modeling/simulation, automated process change management) than traditional packaged application suites (e.g., ERP, CRM). By 2007, the standards-based approach to packaged business process solutions, combined with new/lower pricing models (e.g., per process, value-based), will drive multiple, active new market segments.
7. By 2005, Global 2000 companies will adopt a business operations integration model and begin sharing information in robust scalable repositories. New classes of service providers (Web services brokers, validators, and producers) will emerge as the next-generation systems integrators, providing value-added services and participating in cross-industry multiparty transactions. By 2007, co-combined business operations will emerge as the predominant business model among value chain partners, setting the stage for enterprise-to-enterprise integration.
8. Infrastructure development (ID) will be a key strategic IT discipline through 2007, complementing application delivery and enterprise operations in an increasingly well-integrated iterative manner. Through 2005, to enable adaptive, robust, and affordable infrastructure that spans organisations, ID will evolve from traditional infrastructure planning to collaboratively designing and developing Web services interfaces for shared infrastructure based on a service-oriented architecture.
9. Through 2005, as adaptive infrastructure becomes increasingly critical to business success, infrastructure development (ID) priorities will evolve from overhead cost estimation to portfolio planning based on infrastructure service-level agreements, balancing agility, robustness, and affordability. To compete for investment dollars, ID organisations will employ techniques like infrastructure pattern matching (reusable design), infrastructure impact assessment (analysing reuse), predictive cost modeling (TCO and budgeting), and application subscriptions (service-level-based packaging).
10. Java 2 Enterprise Edition (J2EE) and Windows .Net application servers will be key business application infrastructure platforms through 2007. In addition, most new business applications (whether bought or built) will be assembled from components based on or integrated with J2EE or .Net application servers. Application server vendors will differentiate (and attempt to lock in users) via enhancements such as product, process, or industry-specific Web services, portal frameworks, business-process execution engines, and development and management tools.
11. Initially deployed in 2002/03 as little more than an Internet-based set of integration and interoperability standards (XML, WSDL, UDDI), Web services will displace component-oriented distributed computing paradigms (J2EE, CORBA, COM+) with a more network-based, service-oriented architecture by 2010. Web services will provide an XML-based, metadata-driven agile infrastructure of composable services that extend, simplify, and reunite the Web into the -xWeb," enabling the integration and unification of content, applications, and process across platforms.
12. Although integration services and application server synergy will continue to converge through 2003, proprietary EAI infrastructure will still provide the integration backbone for organisations focused on mergers/acquisitions, CRM, and supply chain integration through 2004. Although integration products based on Web services standards will fully collapse this proprietary EAI market segment into the application server market by 2005, broad user adoption of standardised integration-enabled application servers will be gated by the pace at which application packages expose Web services interfaces.
13. Economic pressures and competitive dynamics will deflate portal pricing and lead to continued market consolidation through 2003/04. By 2005, enterprise application and platform vendors will bundle portal frameworks as part of a broader solution. By 2007, 75% of portal frameworks will be delivered by infrastructure and enterprise application players, with 25% by independent suppliers.
14. By 2004, portal frameworks will become the centerpiece of a delivery infrastructure that acts as a fulcrum to aggregate reusable application, content, analytical, and collaboration components for highly dynamic user interfaces. By 2005, organisations will exploit portal frameworks to deliver contextual business workspaces, enabled via maturing XML and Web service standards. Through 2007, portal vendors will increasingly leverage enterprise infrastructure services.
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