Since John beat me to telling you guys about the June 28 release date for the iPhone, I will just have to settle instead for bringing it to your attention about The Register’s opinion on Why Apple won’t sell 10 million iPhones in 2008.
Steve Jobs was quoted as predicting the sales of iPhone to be at 10 million in 2008, pointing out that it is but one per cent of the worldwide mobile phone market.
However, The Register contents that this will not be so. The rationale offered is:
The vast majority of those phones are super cheap. The smartphone category, which is closest to iPhone territory, is very different. Symbian has sold 100 million smartphones in the last 10 years. BlackBerry hasn’t reached the 10 million figure yet…
Also, it predicted that the iPhone will be late:
… The phone will be late. All first smartphones are. The Nokia 7650 was late, the Ericsson P800 was nearly a year late. The amount of testing necessary for a new phone is incredible.
Further on, on the performances of other (bigger) incumbents who went in, but flopped:
Remember, the mobile industry is one where some of the biggest companies in the world have tried and failed: Siemens, Philips, Fujitsu. None of them have creditable market shares.
Even Jason Langridge, the de-facto spokesperson for Microsoft on Windows Mobile matters wrote earlier on how difficult it is to bring a mobile phone to market.
I think Apple are discovering (just as we did) that bringing a complex mobile phone to market is incredibly hard. We’ve learnt a hell of a lot over the past 6-7 years of developing Windows Mobile connected devices.
What do you think? Will Apple be able to weave its magic once again in the implacably hostile, intensely competitive and mature mobile phone landscape? Join the discussion.