One million iPhones sold, but can Apple hit projected target?

Barely a week after Apple's CEO Steve Jobs announced the new iPod lineup comes the official word that Apple has surpassed one million units of iPhone sold.

Excerpt from the Apple press release on Monday:

Apple today announced it sold its one millionth iPhone yesterday, just 74 days after its introduction on June 29. iPhone combines three devices into one - a mobile phone, a widescreen iPod, and the best mobile Internet device ever - all based on Apple’s revolutionary multi-touch interface and pioneering software that allows users to control iPhone with just a tap, flick, or pinch of their fingers.

Quote from Steve Jobs in the same press release:

One million iPhones in 74 days — it took almost two years to achieve this milestone with iPod. We can’t wait to get this revolutionary product into the hands of even more customers this holiday season.

Yet beneath the apparent optimism is the fact that Steve Jobs pegged the sales of iPhone to reach 10 million in 2008, which means Apple has barely 16 months left to go. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Apple will be hard pressed to even reach 8 million by the end of 2008 at the current rate, because sales will probably taper off somewhat after the hype over its initial launch dies down.

In fact, I wrote about Why Apple won't sell 10 million iPhones in 2008 back in June. Now that the initial take-up rate for the iPhone has been announced, the push to reach the 10 million iPhone target can probably explain the unexpected and steep price cut of US$200 announced just last week.

I don't think that all is lost yet. After all, there are still 16 months left to go. But Apple is going to have to get the iPhone launched in additional markets outside of the United States as soon as possible, and probably also try every trick that it can think of to squeeze out more sales.

What is your opinion. Do you think Apple will be able to move 10 million units of iPhone by the end of 2008?