I certainly dont want to be the kind of person to say I told you so.
Oh, wait, yes, I DO want to say that because it's TRUE.
Just days after I asked whether Microsoft was in big trouble
the stock market discovered the same basic problems and cut the value of thecompany by 30 Billion dollars in a single day.
Say what you will about the stock market (and this certainly
isnt a stock advisory blog), when the big money boys cut the value even of acompany the size of Microsoft by $30B, they must see something they dont like.
The specific trigger was Microsofts announcement that the
company was going to spend a lot of money in a game of catch up trying to pullusers away from Yahoo! and Google.
But the more general cause was the fact that Microsoft has
had a very poor track record when it tried to expand into new businesses beyondthe companys OS and fat client model which was so successful.
Apparently I wasnt the only one who thought so.
Sure, Microsoft has a vast amount of cash to spend, but the
question is whether they CAN build a search engine the equal of Google or acommunity as happy as Yahoo!s loyal fans?
And, not only that, but can they develop search and
community/portal services which are so much BETTER than those already offeredby Google and Yahoo! that people will take the time and trouble to switch?
Personally I doubt it.
But Microsoft has no choice other than to try and battle
Google Google is betting on the thin client which could kill Microsofts cashcow permanently.