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Where do you see IT in 100 years

By Majestic12forlife ·
I'm new here to this discussion board. However, I wanted to choose an IT board where visionaries and people knowledgeable in IT are in abdundance, so I want to know your opinion as to how you see the Information Technology world in 100 years.

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What a scary thought

by HAL 9000 Moderator In reply to Actually I know everythin ...

Having to permantly work a help desk. Now that really would be hell. I at least like to get my hands dirty some times.

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Think Shoes

by Oldefar In reply to Where do you see IT in 10 ...

I started in IT in the early 1970's, actually in the late 1960's if you include mainframe access via accusticly coupled modem and teletype entry in high school.

Without going through all the details, I have watched systems that filled a 1,000 square foot area and required care by dozens of highly skilled technicians reduced to a single chip with a MTBF that exceeds its useful life. I have watched skilled user trades (word processor personnel, data key processors, dispatchers, schedulers) replaced by software and the functions turned into "additional tasks" for others. While the presence of IS/ICT in our daily lives has grown geometrically, the skilled support required for its operation has decreased in both relatively numbers and required skill.

I draw a comparison to this with the cobblers at the start of the industrial revolution. Shoes were rarely worn by children, and adults had typically a single pair that was maintained for years. Cobbling was a skilled trade, much in demand. Today, everyone in the Western countries has many pairs of shoes. The number of people and the number of shoes per person has grown geometically. Yet the number of skilled cobblers has been reduced to a very small number focused on niche markets.

In the next 100 years, IS/ICT will be so fully ingrained in every aspect of our lives that we won't give it a thought. The price will have dropped to the point as to be irrelevant. Skilled IS/ICT workers will likewise have dissappeared.Why fix when replacing is so cheap? Upgrades? The latest and greatest will be integrated into our clothes.

For those not doing raw research and engineering, it is a good time to be looking for that next career. Expect a continued reduction in relative requirements over the next 5 years that is equal to the change in the past 10, perhaps the past 20 years.

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Precisely.

by admin In reply to Think Shoes

Thank you again :)

I believe it will soon be the box that autoupdates your software that you chose to rent the use of by the month or minute.

The cost of your box will be absorbed into the price you pay and they won't be fixed, but tossed. Just like your current cable box.

It's been a fun, youthful, vibrant industry while it goes, but it's becoming unfriendly to the hobbiest. Soon you will not be able to save money as a DIYer. Your game console will get better and your PC gaming cease.

One day your PC will no longer be more than a reel to reel, wire or wax recorder... a wonderful device with a few dedicated hobbiest users who make their own replacement parts...

It's legacy will live on in many different appliances ironically including shoes that track you and indicate your direction of travel most likely :)

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Nope, think cars

by road-dog In reply to Think Shoes

the automotive services industry parallels IT better and thusly creates a better analogy.

Cars become more functional and more complex with each model year. Maintaining them becomes a greater technological challenge with ever more expensive test and analysis equipment.

Even with the amazing decreases in PC costs and the equally amazing employment of technology in everything from cell phones to clothing, I don't believe that desktops will be "disposable" in the truest sense.

Somebody will have to be wearing an orange vest on the shoulder of the infobahn. I like doing it, and I hope I'm still doing it years down the road.

What I don't want to see happen is the purchasable "brain augmentation" technology I've seen on Nova. I'd hate to bust my *** earning my CCIE and have some punk buy a brain upgrade package that will have him catch up with my knowledge level with $100 and a trip to compusa's braindump section.

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Auto and IT

by Oldefar In reply to Nope, think cars

I thought about the comparisons to these two for awhile, and while the advant of the auto caused a radical social change comparable in scope to what has happened with IS/ICT, there are some significant differences.

The early auto consisted of an engine, a passenger or cargo space, and 4 wheels. Today, the car is essentially the same. The early cars went from a plaything of the wealthy to an affordable product for the masses. Today's cars are still there. The amount of work required to earn a new car has been roughly flat for over 50 years. The decrease in direct labor required to build a car has decrease about 4 fold. It seems a bottom has been reached for auto building workers. Sales have been driven by ad campaigns for years now, not by innovation.

Technically, the improvements in IS/ICT are more similar to those in aerospace. From limited distance hops to moon flights in 5 decades, from single seat to commercial travel. However, aerospace never developed as a integrated part of daily life for the masses. Support labor has remained fairly flat for decades, while production moves in bursts based on deep pocket demand.

I just connected a home network via satellite with parts bought at an office supply store. More capability and less cost than the first LAN I installed, or even the first router. My grandson could have done it. At 7, he can easily handle the picture instructions provided and reads well enough to handle the rest.

Brain augmentation for IT? Won't be needed, Road Dog. Like digital watches, its all moving towards throw away and who cares how it works. :)

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So watcha gonna do?????

by road-dog In reply to Auto and IT

OK oldfar, I'll bite... Suppose you're right and the IT field becomes this world of plug and play, pixie dust self healing servers, all the cable that is ever to be needed is allready pulled nightmare of obsolescence. What would you do then?

I'vegot a buddy that got sh*thammered in the tech wreck about 14 months ago. I talked to him earlier today and my optimistic outlook had no effect. He's tired of looking for another IT position. Now he's thinking of driving a cab.

If I had no options for further employment in or near IT, I would probably go back to mechanics, working on heavy equipment or aircraft.

What would you do as a career then?

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Letter of Marqui

by Oldefar In reply to So watcha gonna do?????

Might have to lobby Congress for a Letter of Marqui and go privateering against drug smugglers in the Caribbean. :)

It is probably too late for me to marry a rich widow with a liquer store. Besides, my wife would not let me. The government has decided to tear down the Mustang Ranch, so my quality control job opportunity is gone.

In all seriousnes, it boils down to finding or creating a position doing what you like to do. Got a cousin living a rustic life in Idaho, another who works theparks in the summer and vacations in Mexico winters. They both matched their needs and wants to their finances and seem happier than most of us. I am thinking real hard along the lines of a zero energy home off the grid and a small garden. Just me and the wife, the dogs and cats, and my wireless Internet enabled hoe.

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If you go after pirates,

by road-dog In reply to Letter of Marqui

I'm in...

Son of a son
son of a son
son of a son of a sailor

Son of a gun
load the last ton
one step ahead of the jailer

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**** the man down

by MallardtooXX In reply to If you go after pirates,

Argh Matey!
Master Duck requests permission to board yer ship!

I can KeelHaul with the best of em. Require only half a ration and request to give me share of da loot to me dear old mums!

Tis a Salty Dog yer to be seeing when you look on these eyes matey Argh!

-duck

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Internet Bounty Hunter

by generalist In reply to Letter of Marqui

Sounds like an excellent idea, although I would prefer cooler weather.

Perhaps the Congress critters could be convinced to encourage bounty hunters to go after Internet pirates. I suspect that Hollywood, the BSA and the record industry would support such a thing.

Of course, anybody wanting to be an Internet Bounty Hunter would probably want to have a fool proof alias to keep from being blasted off the Internet or having their real identity trashed.

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