Determinants Of Credit-Less Recoveries

This paper aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After building a dataset and documenting some stylised facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this paper uses panel probit models to analyze key determinants of credit-less recoveries. The authors' main findings are the following. First, the frequency analysis confirms earlier findings that credit-less recoveries are not at all rare events. Moreover, the analysis shows that the frequency of credit-less recoveries doubles after a banking or currency crisis. Second, results from estimated panel probit models suggest that credit-less recoveries are typically preceded by large declines in economic activity and financial stress, in particular if private sector indebtedness is high and the country is reliant on foreign capital inflows.

Provided by: European Central Bank Topic: Mobility Date Added: Jun 2011 Format: PDF

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