How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts--Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts Of Output Growth

This article evaluates the performance of consensus forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries. The question this article tries to address is how do forecasts errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? are forecasts efficient and biased? In this two key result, emerge. First, the record of failure to predict recessions is primarily unblemished. Second, there is high degree of similarity between private forecasts and those of international organizations.

Provided by: International Monetary Fund Topic: Date Added: Apr 2000 Format: PDF

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