Modeling Risk in the Dynamic Environment of Maritime Transportation
The Washington State Ferries are one of the largest ferry systems in the world. Accidents involving Washington State Ferries are rare events. Due to the infrequent occurrence of such accidents, large accident databases are not available for a standard statistical analysis of the contribution of perceived risk factors to accident risk. Simulation is necessary to capture the dynamic environment of changing risk factors, such as traffic interactions, visibility or wind conditions, and to evaluate future scenario's that are designed to alter this dynamic behavior for the purposes of risk reduction or improved passenger service. This paper describes the simulation component of the model used in the Washington State Ferries Risk Assessment.