When will the Linux Peguin ever take off?

Will Microsoft’s hold over the desktop OS continue? or will the Penguin finally take flight?

We hear so much more about Linux OS’s now but yet the average consumer just isn’t taking it on. Is it the retailers doing deals with MS? Is it that we are still unsure about Linux? Is it the lack of software (in particular games) that is stopping Linux from breaking free? or something else? Will the ultra mobile PC’s finally give Linux the break it needs?

I think it would be nice to see some real competition again in the desktop OS market? Do you?