Image: Envato
From the rapid ascent of mobile commerce to the expanding influence of AI on product discovery, the data shows a marketplace undergoing rapid modernization.
Americans spent $11.7 billion on shopping on Black Friday, according to Adobe’s Holiday Shopping Trends report for 2025.
Adobe compiled trillions of retail data points to forecast how consumers shopped, and are expected to shop, during the peak winter season. The company’s latest analysis outlines how spending habits, technology adoption, and the structure of the retail calendar are continuing to evolve, offering retailers an early blueprint for maximizing engagement and sales. In fact, the 2025 data reveals an increase compared to Black Friday in 2024, when shoppers in the U.S. spent $10.8 billion.
The findings suggest another transformative year ahead. From the rapid ascent of mobile commerce to the expanding influence of AI on product discovery, Adobe’s data paints a picture of a marketplace undergoing rapid modernization. At the same time, macroeconomic headwinds and shifting consumer expectations are shaping how shoppers allocate their budgets, making this year’s insights particularly consequential for both online and brick-and-mortar retailers.
According to Adobe, the 2025 holiday season is poised to be the first quarter trillion-dollar holiday season. Adobe forecasts a record $253.4 billion will be spent online (Nov. 1–Nov. 23) up 5.3% year-on-year.
Consumers are expected to remain cautious about discretionary purchases due to lingering economic pressures, including elevated interest rates and continued household budget tightening. Even so, Adobe reports that the total volume of transactions is set to rise, an indication that consumers are still prioritizing holiday shopping while being more deliberate about timing and payment methods.
This nuanced environment is likely to produce a season characterized by targeted deals, strategic shopping periods, and an increased focus on value. Retailers are being encouraged to adjust promotional calendars and optimize checkout experiences to capture early and late-season demand.
Adobe’s data once again identifies several high-impact days that will define the sales curve. While Black Friday and Cyber Monday continue to dominate as peak shopping moments, the report indicates that spending will be more evenly distributed across the season than in previous years. This shift is partly driven by retailers releasing deals earlier and consumers using tools like price-tracking and AI-assisted search to plan purchases more strategically.
The company predicts that early November and the final week before Christmas will see unusually strong activity, challenging the traditional spike-and-dip rhythm of holiday sales.
The implication for retailers is clear: success in 2025 will depend on sustained engagement, not just performance during one or two high-traffic days.
One of the most striking trends in Adobe’s report is the continued rise of mobile commerce. Adobe forecasts mobile revenue share to hit a record 56.1% this holiday season, while seven in 10 retail site visits will take place on mobile devices.
Smartphones are projected to account for a majority of holiday purchases, cementing mobile as the dominant channel for browsing, discovery, and checkout. While mobile shopping has been climbing for years, 2025 marks a point where retailers can no longer consider mobile optimization optional.
A seamless mobile experience — from site navigation to payment processing — is expected to play a decisive role in conversion rates. Retailers that fail to streamline their mobile funnels may see significant drop-off as shoppers gravitate toward platforms and brands with faster and more intuitive mobile interfaces.
Adobe expects Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) usage to grow throughout the season, reflecting consumer demand for flexible payment options. Adobe forecasts $20.2 billion will be spent through the payment method (Nov. 1–Dec. 31), showing 11% growth over 2024.
The report suggests that BNPL will no longer be concentrated around major promotional days but will instead see consistent adoption as shoppers manage budget constraints.
This shift has broader implications for retailers and financial providers. While BNPL can increase conversion and average order value, it also raises questions about long-term consumer debt loads and financial stability. Adobe’s data suggests that retailers offering BNPL will likely gain a competitive advantage, but only those who communicate terms clearly and responsibly will maintain customer trust.
Adobe highlights that AI-generated traffic to retail websites is set to accelerate rapidly in 2025. AI is changing how consumers shop for holiday gifts. This holiday season, traffic from AI sources (LLMs) to retail sites is expected to rise 515–520% from the 2024 holidays.
This includes shoppers using generative AI tools to search for product ideas, compare prices, generate shopping lists, and surface gift recommendations. Retailers are increasingly integrating AI-powered personalization into their platforms as well, creating a feedback loop that boosts both visibility and relevance.
The expansion of AI in commerce could reshape marketing strategy, emphasizing intent-driven discovery over traditional advertising.
Taken together, Adobe’s 2025 Holiday Shopping Trends report suggests a season defined by technological acceleration, financially cautious but active consumers, and shifting patterns in how and when people make purchases. For retailers, the challenge will be balancing innovation with reliability — ensuring customers can navigate a growing array of digital tools while still enjoying the convenience and value they expect during the holidays.
With mobile commerce dominant, AI shaping discovery, and flexible payments fueling spending, retailers who adapt early are likely to see the greatest returns as winter sets in and the holiday rush begins.
Last week, UK research from payments consultancy PSE Consulting said AI-powered shopping was set for a major breakthrough on Black Friday.
