Having tried out some of these new web based office tools, such as the Google ones and Webex Office I am pretty sure that within the next 5 years people will stop buying PC’s and buying software to install on those PC’s and then subsequently worrying about patches and upgrades.
People will pay about $25 a month to subscribe to a remote service that will take care of word processing, spreadsheet, accounts, photo applications, music etc. That will be delivered on demand over a 40 MB internet link.
The PC will be replaced by a small slab about the size of a VCR cartridge. This will contain a local processor and a small disk for temporay local storage. It will consume about 5 watts in operation and have a 10 second start up time from cold. The Wyse thin client boxes already approach this type of thing. There will still be local LCD (or equivalent) screen and a full sized key board, though voice recognition will increase.
The operating system will be irrelevant on the local Personal Unit (PU) either Microsoft or LINUX. The PU will be virus prooof with the local operating system held on a read only card. Complex functionality will come from the central service provider.
Forget about login and account passwords, this will be dealt with by a combination of finger print scan and a SIM sized smart card. Your mobile phone will connect via your house Wireless Router, but also link into your PU for Skype type of phone calls.
The bad news for Microsoft (unless they change) is that public will no longer have the continual round of having to upgrade software (& PC) every three years.