Windows Forum

Ask something
Discussion Locked

My US Presidential Election Turn-Out Prediction

0 helpful
11 replies

by admin 1 view

Closed to new repliesThis discussion is closed. It stays readable, but it takes no new replies.

79%

There you have it. I know that it is quite a bit lower than Secretary of State Sam Reed predicted last week.

He of course said 84% which is only slightly below the highest turnout ever of 84.6%, which was in 1944.

Personally, I think the turn out then during that war was a little bit more significant than in the current situation, but I really hope you all prove me wrong and we obliterate that record this year :)

11 replies

by admin

D-Day
Korematsu v.United States
No domestic automobiles were produced, only a very limited number of light trucks for agriculture were made for the first time since 1942.
Rations.

To name just a few. EVERYONE was affected that lived in the US by the war in SIGNIFICANT ways in 1942 and the worldwide outlook was extremly dismal.

In light of this I think it is amazing that only 84.6% of the population voted and a quite incredulous that Sam is considering this a wartime vote of the same magnitude. Still, although my estimate may still be high, I am optimistic and hopeful that we will have a good turnout :)

by oz_media

I think if someone told GWB the election was on December 2nd, he would in turn noify his republican minions. No matter what polling booths opened up, no matter if they were given a half day off to go vote and no matter what the news and newsapers said, they wouldn't believe it and would all turn out on December 2nd as Bush said.

Man, that'd be great!!! :D

by jardinier

"May the best man win."

The choice you have is: "May the worst man lose."

In all seriousness -- and this was certainly the case in the recent Australian election -- it is more a matter of: "Better the devil you know than the one you don't."

Much as I am not actually a raving fan of Bush, my predicition is that he will win, on the premise stated above.

by oz_media

I think it will be chalked up to fear, uncertainty and doubt.

people know what kid of Bs and garbage to expect fro Bush, the nature of people today is to resist change, that's what needs to be overcome in order to see a new president in the US.

by maxwell edison

.
I assume that Sam Reed, Washington state's Secretary of State, was predicting the turnout for his state, not nationally. Moreover, I wonder if his percentage prediction is based on the number of registered voters or the number of eligible voters? I would assume it a percentage of registered voters. In 1944, for example, the national turnout was 56 percent of eligible voters. I don't know about Washington state.

Nonetheless, I think the national voter turnout in 2004 will be greater than the ~51 percent of eligible voters that cast ballots in 2000, but not that much higher. Sure, there is a lot of interest in this election, but there's also a lot of apathy that will compel some to stay home as well.

National turnout of eligible voters will be 55 percent.

And 53 percent of those folks will cast their votes for President Bush.

President Bush - 338 electoral votes
John Kerry - 200 electoral votes

by maxwell edison

.
I haven't seen the final number published anywhere. Where did you get that 60 percent?

My "rough" estimates:

~204,000,000 - Eligible Voting Population of the USA

~116,000,000 - Actually Voted

Equals about 56 percent

Max -1%
admin +23%

by admin

What happened to 40% of America that they didn't think it was worth voting!

Ay Yi YI!

by mschan

Don't care/indifferent? Negative ads turn off voters?

It's the same thing for the last Canadian election too - about 60/40.

As an immigrant to Canada, I very much value my right to vote and I have voted in every federal, provincial and municipal government elections that I am eligible for.

This discussion is closed to new replies.