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Can Tech Save The BCS?

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by Erik Eckel 1 view

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Here we are, just days away from one of the year's big events, and I'm not talking turkey.

No, I'm talking football rivalries: Michigan v. Ohio State, Texas v. Texas A&M, Georgia v. Georgia Tech, USC v. UCLA, Virginia v. Virginia Tech., etc.

The next couple weeks are key for USC, Texas, Miami, Penn State and LSU students, alumnus and fans. NCAA bowl invitations are about to hit the mail, but as usual, trouble's in the air.

Current BCS formulas have USC and Texas first and second, followed by Miami, Penn State, LSU and Virginia Tech (in that order). The AP, however, has LSU ranked in front of Penn State and Notre Dame sixth, even though unranked Michigan State, and USC for that matter, defeated the Fighting Irish.

Is there some way the often maligned computer rankings that help compose the BCS formula can be improved to help eliminate BCS bowl issues, or is a playoff the only hope?

38 replies

by charliespencer

If these are just kids, why does every other college sport, and football at all other levels, have a playoff system?

I'll give you the answer: $$$$$$$$$$$$. It's not about the kids, it's about how the colleges and the NCAA can best exploit them.

by m_a_r_k

Only a playoff can fix it. The whole poll system is without merit. The polls and computer rankings depend heavily on who you lose to and when you lose. Who says a 9-2 or 8-3 team isn't the best team in the country just because their star player got hurt and caused them to lose a couple of games? In the NFL (or any major sport) the two teams with the best records hardly ever play in the championship game. Also, the current system awards offense and scoring dozens of points a game more than an airtight defense. Who says a team that beats its opponents 35-17 every game is better than one that beats their opponents 17-3?

by mountain air

After the traditional bowl games, take the top 8 teams from the post-bowls poll. They play a traditional single-elimination tournament with the first game of the tournament in each of the 4 BCS bowl stadiums. The BCS powers are happy (getting 2 buckets of money). Nobody has to sit through a 1 vs 8 on New Years Day. The tournament teams only play an additional 3 games (max). The season ends with an undisputed champion. Who wouldn't love this setup, except those who don't like football?

by jknaeble

The problem with most ideas is that they leave out the opportunity for all 117 teams that are listed as Division 1A to be capable of winning a national championship. There are currently only 6 of the 12 conferences (plus Notre Dame) eligible for the BCS title. I don't have a final answer, but every conference champion should have a shot at the title. Americans love to cheer for the underdog...in the case of the BCS, underdogs are too poor to deserve a shot.

by m_a_r_k

How do you determine the "top 8 teams"? And the playoff that you suggest would last through the end of January. That makes for a long season. A problem with the bowls already is that teams have a long layoff between the end of the season (typically first week of December) and the Jan 1 bowl games.

The NCAA and the schools surely would not mind the extra money that would pour in from TV, advertising and ticket sales.

by deepsand

The schools have long been resistant to the idea of their teams playing the extra games that would be required of those participating in a playoff system.

I want it; the schools don't.

Guess who wins that argument.

by sin-ick

play offs with points schedule during year, so many wins during year gets you to the play offs. winner wins in play offs. now making a fantasy rankings...... oh yeah go ahead wipe out the sports scribblers. they're just parasites for the players.

by powerion3

The only way to really make this work is a win or go home formula. Take the Bowl Ties as neutral sites and start getting it on. I come from a football rich state, (MS has produced Jerry Rice, Walter Payton, Jackie Slater, Charlie Connerly, Brett Favre, Archie Manning, jimmie smith, eric Moulds, to name a few) that would love to see the pagentry replaced by the poundings. Problem is the local politicians will not get out of the way. The all mighty dollar is the prevailing problem.

by smorty71

The bowls should be part of the playoff system. At the end of the season, take the top teams and put them in a bracket. Each of the games in the bracket can be thought of as a bowl game (i.e. sponsors can pay millions of dollars to put their name on it).

Playoffs after the bowl games don't seem to make much sense to me.

by charliespencer

Play the first rounds at the "bottom feeder" bowls ("The Kaopectate Bowl Presented By Chi-Chi's", etc.). Use the current "BCS" bowls for the semi's and championship games, rotating the final game as is done now.

Sixteen teams would require four weekends. That sounds like a lot, but remember, at least two of those weekends are between the fall and spring semesters. The academic impact on the "student-atheletes" would be less than during the basketball tournament.

by charliespencer

Take the team with the best record (NOT the winner of the conference championship game) from each conference with more than 10 schools. Take the team with the best record from the non-conference schools. Add the 2A division champion! Fill the remaining slots with any remaining conference championship game winners not already entered, then with the teams with the best won-loss record not already entered.

by m_a_r_k

How many teams would this involve? Sounds like a dozen or more. An 8-team playoff is already three weeks. 9 or more teams will be at least four weeks.

Since when is best record a sure-fire determinant of best teams? Look at NFL and baseball. Wild card teams frequently get to the champeenship game/series and occasionally win the whole ball of wax. If you place a big emphasis on won-loss records, you're going to create incentive for teams to load up on patsies in non-conference games and teams in competitive conferences like the SEC will be at a disadvantage.

by jknaeble

For any kid that grows up loving a team before they find out that it does not belong to one of the WEALTHY conferences, any system that does not allow each of the 117 Division 1A teams the opportunity to claim the national title is discriminary. The BCS in itself is an elitist group that says that they make more money...so they should be the only ones with a national champion. Doing the math, an 8 team playoff would last three weeks. A 16 would last four weeks. I don't know what the previous person had in mind, but I would want to see all 12 conferences send their champion and reward 4 other at large teams having strong schedules/seasons with an opportunity. I would also suggest an NIT type tournament for those that do not make the play-offs. There is nothing wrong with an additional 16 teams battling it out to see who is Number 17 in the nation. I recognize that this still limits the number of teams that get post season opportunities...but that is just life...is it not?

by deepsand

Although I concur with your point, it must be noted that conferences which have divisions & a conference championship game, such as the SEC, can and do stack the odds with regards to ensuring that the desired team has the best chance of being the conference champ.

The Big Ten is a far more balanced conference than is the SEC; but, lacking a divisional system, is less likely to have a conference champ that will have a win-loss record equal to those who win the championship of one with divisions.

by deepsand

Why the team with the best record among conferences with [i]more than 10[/i] schools? Sounds arbitrary to me.

And, are you aware that there are presently but 2 independent 1-A schools? Under your plan, either Temple or Air Force get an automatic playoff berth!

Why include teams other than 1-A? With over 140 1-A teams to chose from, there is no need to include those that can't cut it in 1-A.

by m_a_r_k

Have a playoff with teams with conference winners from eight of the "strongest" conferences. Or maybe six conferences plus two at-large teams. Champions of SEC, Big 12, Big 10, Pac-10, Big East, ACC and two other teams. Playoffs begin the weekend after Thanksgiving. That should crown a champion by Christmas. You can still have the New Years bowl games. The lower divisions have playoffs. So why can't the major colleges?

by mirrormirror

What if instead of the heavily biased BCS or relying on sportswriters who are also heavily biased, we could do something like what the English Premiership Soccer League does. They have several levels of competition, with the most sucessful teams in the premier league. Standings are determined by points for wins, number of games in the league, number of games won, number of points, etc. This kind of scoring for standings would be more fair to me and would give small schools the ability to work their way up to competing with the big schools.

Here are the Barclays Premiership competition rules as posted on premierleague.com
*********************************************
Rules of the Barclays Premiership Competition

THE LEAGUE COMPETITION

1. Each Club shall play 2 League Matches against each other Club each Season, being the Home Club in respect of one such League Match and the Visiting Club in respect of the other.

2. The winner of a League Match shall score three points. Each Club participating in a League Match which is drawn shall score one point.

3. The results of League Matches shall be recorded by the Secretary in a table containing in respect of each Club the following information:

3.1 the number of League Matches played in that Season;

3.2 the number of League Matches won, drawn and lost as a Home Club in that Season;

3.3 the number of League Matches won, drawn and lost as a Visiting Club in that Season;

3.4 the number of goals scored in League Matches by and against that Club in that Season;

3.5 the number of points scored in that Season.

4. The position of Clubs in the table shall be determined by the number of points scored in that Season, the Club having scored the highest number of points being at the top of the table and the Club having scored the lowest number of points being at the bottom.

5. If any 2 or more Clubs have scored the same number of points their position in the table shall be determined on goal difference, that is to say, the difference between the total number of goals scored by and against a Club in League Matches in that Season, and the higher or highest placed Club shall be the Club with the larger or largest goal difference.

6. If any 2 or more Clubs have scored the same number of points and have the same goal difference the higher or highest placed Club shall be the Club having scored the most goals in League Matches in that Season.

7. Subject to Rule B.29, if any 2 or more Clubs have scored the same number of points, have the same goal difference and have scored the same number of goals in League Matches in that Season they shall be deemed to occupy the same position in the table.

THE LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP

8. The Club which is at the top of the table at the end of the Season shall be the League Champions.

9. The League Champions shall receive a trophy which it shall return to the Secretary in good order and condition not later than 3 weeks before the final League Matches of the next Season.

10. The League Champions shall further receive 21 commemorative medals to be presented by the Club to its Manager and to such of its Players and Officials as it thinks fit provided, in the case of a Player, that he has that Season played in a minimum of 10 of its League Matches. Additional medals may be presented with the consent of the Board.

RELEGATION

11. Subject to Rule B.27, the bottom 3 Clubs in the table at the end of the Season shall be relegated to the Football League.

12. If any Club ceases during the Season to be a member of the League, the record of the League Matches in which it has participated that Season shall be expunged from the table and the number of Clubs to be relegated at the end of that Season shall be reduced so as to maintain at 20 (or, if less, as near thereto as may be) the number of Clubs in membership of the League at the beginning of the next Season.

13. If any Club ceases to be a member of the League other than by reason of relegation after the end of the Season but before the Board has fixed the dates of League Matches for the next Season, the Board may invite the relegated club which attained the highest position in the table referred to in Rule B.18 at the end of the previous Season to rejoin the League.

PLAY-OFFS

14. If at the end of the Season either the League Champions or the Clubs to be relegated or the question of qualification for other competitions cannot be determined because 2 or more Clubs are equal on points, goal difference and goals scored, the Clubs concerned shall play off one or more deciding League Matches on neutral grounds, the format, timing and venue of which shall be determined by the Board.
**************************************************

by m_a_r_k

Wow! You certainly need a college degree to understand all those rules. So it makes sense that they might apply to a college football champion. But the BCS computer ranking already uses a point system.

by mirrormirror

The BCS point system is a conglomeration of different polls and voting. When you do that, then the point system is subjective because people will vote or poll along the lines of their favorite teams. Do I have that wrong? I usually have to bounce all things football off my husband, shows you how up I am on this stuff, huh?

If I am not wrong, then it seems to me that the only fair thing to do is to take opinion out of the point system. That way there is no question as to the validity of the ranking. I kinda like simple things, because I am a simple person. :))

A valid, black-and-white point system would leave the sportswriters with less power and less to write about. Oh darn! lol!

by m_a_r_k

Yep, I know about ol' Mr. Sagarin. He's been rating college football teams for years. I'm not sure if his formula is mathematical or magical. Sometimes his rankings differ quite dramatically from the more popular polls (AP and USA Today). Like he may have a team ranked #3 but that team is ranked #7 or 8 in the AP poll.

You keep using your husband as the reason for why you are telling us so much about football. I think you know more about football than you're letting on. It's cool if you do. Nothing wrong about chicks digging football. :D

by m_a_r_k

Yep, you're right. Limiting a playoff only to the "top" few conferences isn't fair. Though it is logical. How often in the last 40 years has a team from the Mountain West or Ivy League had a team good enough to be even discussed as a national champ contender? That's why I think my idea of taking teams from the six top conferences plus two wild-card teams might work.

by brj1980

Gotta do what Division II and III schools do to determine a champion. Actually I believe every other organized sport from Professional football to 8th grade girls soccer does it the obvious way. Have a friggin playoff.

by johnofstony

Yes, that's what BCS means to us Brits. I wonder how many TechRepublic subscribers have, like me, a total disinterest in sport (in my case with the exception of 2 so-called sports, motor racing and snooker)

by charliespencer

I favor using the bowl games as part of a playoff system. This would result in the same number of games overall, if not fewer.

But my primary point is that every other sport has a playoff, why not 1A football? Because a 16-team playoff is only 15 games total. There are more bowl games than that played now. Fewer bowl games means fewer team participating in the post season, and thus fewer guaranteed dollars for the conferences and schools.

by deepsand

A 16 team playoff, with 15 games total, requires 4 rounds of play. This results in MORE games for those teams which advance beyond the 1st round.

The schooles have been particularly resistant to a playoff system for this very reason.

Furthermore, given that there are presently over 140 1-A schools, the selection process that would be required for determining which show participate in the playoffs would still allow for the same kinds of problems that exist under the current BCS system.

Still, I do concur that some sort of playoff system is the only way to improve on that which we now have.

by master3bs

Count every team in the BCS. Take the top 6 teams. They make a field of 6; with the top two teams getting a first round bye. That puts importance on the regular season.

To win the championship you have to win 2 to 3 games. College football has already allowed an extra game to be played this year, so that shows its not a big hurdle.

There will still be controversy about the 7th team; but not as much. More teams get a chance; a true national champion is crowned.

More money is made. The big bowls can host the playoffs; and your other bowls can still be played for the teams that don't make it. It's a perfect system.

by psinger1

...A valid, black-and-white point system would leave the sportswriters with less power and less to write about....

If you look back on where all the arguments have come, the last few years, you will observe that all of them have come the "computer rankings" out-voting the national polls. Each one of those "computer rankings" is just a different flavor of "point system". If someone knows of one which has picked an consensus #1 and #2 the last five years please let me know.

The real problem is when the two national polls do not agree on #1 & #2. In an effort to make things more neutral, the BCS has it set up to give the computer polls equal weight. The result is a case where a #3 school in the polls can leapfrog into the BCS title game.

The solution is simple: weight the two national polls at 40% each, and the computer poll at 20%. That way, all it can do is break a tie.

by m_a_r_k

You hit the nail on the head when you said "[u]opinion[/u] of the point system". There is no black-and-white point system. Anything designed by humans will still have an element of subjectivity. How do you decided what are the most important attributes in selecting teams for a playoff? Points scored? Points allowed? Yards gained? Most minutes leading in the score? Prettiest cheerleaders? The only way to determine a champion is playing on the field. But as we've been discussing, how do we choose the best teams for a playoff? It has to come from conference champions. Which conferences? I dunno.

DL05, you're doing pretty good in this discussion for supposedly having to rely on your husband for information. Don't bounce things too hard off his head. Men's heads aren't really as hard as you women think they are. :D

by mirrormirror

If the prettiest cheerleaders are part of the way to determine who gets selected for playoff, the I demand equal time! How would you determine what is a "pretty" cheerleader? Would you go for natural beauty or enhanced beauty? I personlly would count off for any cheerleaders who have had any plastic surgery. That's kind of like comparing athletes that take steroids to ones who do not. And, what about the whole blonde vs brunette controversy? And finally, how would tech fit into the whole cheerleader rating? LOL!

If the women are going to be rated, then I want to give a rating on the best looking football players. We could rate them not only for their face, but for their physical attributes as well. I mean, since you would get to check out cheerleaders in pretty skimpy out fits, it is only fair that I get to check out the football players in revealing attire. ;)

I think I'm onto something with this....hmmmmm. Where is ITgirli when you need her?

by m_a_r_k

You don't get equal time. That wouldn't be fair. 80% of football fans are male, so you can have 20% time, not 50%.

How would I determine what a "pretty" cheerleader is? Guys have been honing their skills with that sort of thing for a long time. Trust me. We just know. ;)

Natural or enhanced? Natural would be best but sometimes it's hard to tell if any body parts are plasticized or silicon-filled. So, in the interest of protection of privacy, we'll take either natural or enhanced. And since we all know that athletes never use steroids, comparing artificially enhanced females to artificially muscled-up athletes is a moot point.

Blonde vs brunette? Almost any hair color is fine. Blonde, brunette, blue, green. Anything but red. My ex-wife is a redhead.

How does tech fit into the cheerleader rating? It doesn't. Everyone knows that cheerleaders are dingbats. :D Mixing tech anything with a cheerleader is dangerous.

You can rate your football players, but it will have to be for your own enjoyment only. Everyone knows that the best football players are big, ugly, sweaty overgrown, stinky lugs. So maybe we could use your rating system after all. Lowest hunk rating means a higher BCS ranking.

Football players in revealing attire? We are talking American football and not that European kickball game, right?

Hell, it's a good thing ITgirli is NOT here to participate in this discussion. She'd blast me for being an insensitve chauvinist. ?:|

by osurickbee

College football will never have a "clean" champ the way NFL does for several reasons:

- As has been mentioned already, "Division IA" is a misnomer. In reality, there are 35-50 Top programs (most in BCS conferences but not all)that will always be the "big dogs". Many of the BCS schools are pretenders, not contenders. The other 90+ schools play by a different set of rules with a different philosophy.... less about the money and more about the college experience.

- Unlike the NFL, the elite college teams play a varying schedule from one another, with the goal of being undefeated. Historicly, there are 6-10 schools that have feasted on weaklings in their own conference, and rarely schedule non-conference games against other BCS schools, much less road games against same. IMHO, if a team doesn't have a road victory over one of the other big schools, they're not champs. Again money dictates that these schools play mostly home games, and mostly assured victories.

- The polls are the only true measuring stick, and they are flawed. Pre-season polls often skew the whole season, and should be done away with. There shouldn't be a poll released until the 3rd or 4th week. Polls should reflect the body of work of a given team over a season, much the way the NCAA hoops selection committee picks their seeds.

- Leagues with divisions and championship games have already watered down the traditional rivalries and added an extra layer of confusion for the sake of money. Everyone should play everyone. If you lose a non-conference patsy game because of it, too bad. Trouble is there is too much money to be made with these early season non-conference joke games.

- The bowl system (pre BCS) worked well. Traditional conference ties with at large teams sprinkled in. They make big bucks for the schools and the host cities. No one will be giving these up any time soon. Winning your conference and going to a traditional bowl are huge goals and rewards. Many years the two best teams played anyway.

The "mythical" college national championship is still the best way to go. The mythical championship is truly best suited to read "team of the year" rather than winning one particular game. Even in College BB the "National Champion" is truly the NCAA Tournament champion, and is NOT always the "team of the year". If you truly want a solution, first make the BCS an official NCAA division and let the reamaning schools revamp the way they handle the postseason. Require each of the BCS schools to play a home and home non conference series, set up the computer rankings to penalize home victories against weak opponents and reward road games against fellow BCS schools. Go back to the old bowl system, and if you must, add a final championship game.

by deepsand

Yes, the current problems re. selection of the participating schools would not be vanquished by a playoff system.

No, the schools DO MIND; they don't want the extra games. This they have steadfastly resisted for quite some time.

by deepsand

The schools have been particularly resistant to any changes which increase the number of games such that the time period required exceeds that of the present.

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