2 Weeks To Election - My Prediction (Again)

Well the picture (as accurate/inaccurate as it mey be) shows an expected strong support for Bush through central US.

The outside views surrounding people in those states echoes just such a vote.

How prediactable, I myself feel that RIGHT NOW, GWb stands a better chance than Kerry, mainly due to fear uncertainty and doubt. Fear of change etc.

Most people are scared to make changes (in every country not just the USA) it is a fact of mankind. It's the whole comfort zone issue, and fear of the unknown. I think even though people think Bush screwed up BIG TIME, as many republicans have actually said here too, he will be reelected based on his economic intents and not his global intent.

Now while I agree that Bush MAY have a better plan FOR Americans, I cannot say and do not really care, it doesn't have ANY effect on me.

It also indicates an inner thought process with complete disregard for global relations.

So while I see it as being fair in some respects, Americans MUST consider thier own lives, employment, taxes etc., I also see it as a negative attitude due to the nature of global presence that is scrutinized so closely.

This almost means that Americans are willing to ignore the global mistakes that GWB has lead America into, in order to sate thier own monetary gains.

Again, quite predictable, but sad all the same.

Lets all hope that enough people see it neccessary to speak out against Republican America to force themselves into ballot booths and remove this guy whether they feel it is a waste of time or not.

Good luck USA!

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I wonder how they decide which data (poll results) to use. (Look at the excel breakdown - it shows different polls.) Perhaps they try to mix it up, but some of the conclusions don't make a lot of sense, at least not on the surface. New Mexico, for example, went from a weak Bush to a strong Kerry in just one day (compare 10-19 to 10-20).

I do, however, like the interactive nature of the site; and it does provide a good overview of how our electoral process really works - they try to win states, not a "popular vote".

I went back on the time-line you mentioned.

The same prediction site on Oct 16th:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct16.html

(Neither one has the required 270.)

On the 15th (Bush wins):

http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct15.html

On Oct 10th (Kerry wins):

http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct10.html

On Oct 1st (Bush wins):

http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct01.html

....And the "Projected" Final Map:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct01p.html

Interesting site.

Speaking of poll results, here's another site that might interest you.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html

(Disclaimer: I know, I know. The site I posted, realclearpolitics.com, appears to be a right-leaning site, especially based on the writers it links to. But the polls are all familiar ones)

I will admit, regardless of where you might get your information, this has been one of the most difficult elections to get a good grasp on. One poll says Bush is ahead by 8 points, while another calls it a dead-heat. Go figure.

However, I've never seen a poll - any poll - showing that Kerry had a consistent and strong lead on Bush.

But of all the "Kerry will win" messages posted around here, none of them took a really good look at reality, and tried to explain just how he'd do it. Okay, Kerry supporters, if you think he's going to really win, give your own state-by-state predictions.