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3 Months to Election - My Prediction

By maxwell edison ·
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Regardless of the anti-Bush sentiment that permeates these threads, and regardless of what any "political poll" may indicate, there is more wide-spread support for President Bush than people are led to believe. I predict the following election results.

President Bush will win the following states:

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Colorado (9)
Florida (27)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Iowa (7)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (
Louisiana (9)
Minnesota (10)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (11)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
Nevada (5)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Ohio (20)
Oklahoma (7)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (21)
South Carolina (
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
Virginia (13)
West Virginia (5)
Wisconsin (10)
Wyoming (3)

Total Electoral Votes 338


Senator Kerry will win the following states:

California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Michigan (17)
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (11)
Washington D.C. (3)

Total Electoral Votes 200

President Bush: 338
Senator Kerry: 200

Note: You'll notice that I did not mention any "popular vote" results. That's because we DO NOT have a "popular vote" contest for President - never did, and never will. However, if we did, I would predict the results as follows: President Bush will get 52 percent of the vote, Senator Kerry will get 44 percent, and that person named "other" will get 4 percent.

And depending on how Governor "Terminator" campaigns for President Bush (considering the fact that Californians threw-out the Democrat Governor Gray Davis last year in favor of Arnold), he "could" tweak out a victory in California as well.

You heard it here first.
- Maxwell Edison (Aug 5, 2004)

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I think it'll be MUCH closer than that

by Oz_Media In reply to 3 Months to Election - My ...

For what I can see, these two guys are running around America in a frenzy looking for any last minute swing voters.

They were both in the same sity about 4 blocks apart the other day (you will know all about that one). The part I thought was funny, no matter what side it was from. GWB was statig that he was working to increase employmentfor Americans (in an evasively suggetive but noncommittal way) he said he would 'turn the corner' and not look back.

They then showed Kerry at his economic summit (I think it was economic or something similar)just four blocks away. He said that if Bush wanted to really get down and debate some REAL economic affairs, then he should just 'turn the corner' and drop in.

Now I am not going to say yay Kerry and boo Bush, you know what I think of Bush and I have no real opinion of Kerry, he hasn't made stupid decisions that effect the world, yet.

But I thought it was somewhat funny that these guys go campaigning in such a hideously farcicle way that only makes them appear as blood hungry political pundits.

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Almost everyone thinks that

by maxwell edison In reply to I think it'll be MUCH clo ...

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Not many people are going out on such a prediction limb for the 2004 election. Almost everyone thinks it will an extremely close election, so you're certainly with the majority. I could probably get 100-1 odds in London with such a prediction. (Well, maybe 25-1.)

On your "frenzy for last minute voters"????

This isn't "last minute". The Republicans haven't even had their convention yet.

Last minute = the last week in October & first week in November.

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Fair enough

by Oz_Media In reply to Almost everyone thinks th ...

Well the news has been repoting how these candidates are scrambling at the last minute to try and capture the last of the swing voters.

I may have misinterpreted LAST MINUTE SWING voters to mean the last minute voters, not that thay are lokoing for people who would vote may swing at the last minute. Even still then, that would make any campaigning now to be irrelevant, if they swing at th last minute.

I must admit that the news coming from the US is very unreliable at best perhaps thier choice of words was wrong in this case.

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Bush will get closer to 54% and he'll win Maine.

by sleepin'dawg In reply to 3 Months to Election - My ...

A lot of people are starting to question Kerry's shower sandals approach to politics---- you know what I mean; flip-flops plus groups like the The Swift Boat Veterans are starting to show up and question his military record. One Purple Heart I can understand maybe even two but three??? What was he, too dumb to duck??? That last comment came from a guy who was over there around the same time and when you look at him, a Purple Heart, 2 Bronze Stars and a Silver Star, he might have a point. How come Kerry doesn't talk about any other decorations except his three Purple Hearts. Is he ashamed of something??? By the way the guy who made the comment wore the Budweiser badge and I figure he knows what he's talking about. He's a Democrat who says he's voting Republican this time around.
http://www.swiftvets.com/
http://swift1.he.net/~swiftvet/index.php
I know a couple of these guys and all I can say or feel entitled to say, is I'm glad he isn't running for office up here. Something else I've noticed is a lot of black people seem to have shifted their support from Democrat to Republican. A lot of black people served in Vietnam and none are to thrilled hearing Mrs Kerry's South African or Zimbabwean accent and all the baggage that it implies. So like I said Bush 54% Kerry 42% and other 4% and Maine will go Bush if only by a hair. You heard it here first. Bush's military record may not be too stellar but he doesn't lie about it. There are way too many questions about Kerry.

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You could be right on Maine

by maxwell edison In reply to Bush will get closer to 5 ...

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In 2000, Maine went to Gore: Gore/Nader (49/6) and Bush/Buchanan (44/1).

Maine was one of Nader's strongest states, so he could play the spoiler role again. Without a conservative alternative to Bush this time around, that would mean that a swing of less than 3 percent would indeed give Maine to Bush. And 3 percent of Maine's vote is only about 18,000.

It's certainly possible, I suppose. But regardless, you and I are both going out on a limb, and making a prediction that's contrary to the standard "close election" predictions.

Either way, this election will be over before by 5:00 Pacific time.

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Bush's military record may not be too stellar but he doesn't lie about it

by Oz_Media In reply to Bush will get closer to 5 ...

Try Bush's military record is virtually noexistant. Which to me as a Canadian meas absolutely NOTHING whatsoever in a leader. I'd be surprised if our P.M had even played organized sports in grade school, we don't need a general running/ruining the country though.

But all I hae seen of Bush's record are the repeated attempts for discharge, his request to be relocated to an base that was not beig used for anything but a post office and he insisted on training on aircraft being removed from the military while others were training on new aircraft at active bases.

That coupled with all the times he was allowed to 'disappear' for 6 months on end to help with his dad's campaigns and then eventuallly just disapeared altogether, failed to take a medical exam (sniff, sniff)and pretty much ditched the forces.

So if we are going to say Kerry is a ***** for beig hit, scraped etc three times, then what the **** does that make the spineless jellyfish Bush?

While people discount one persons military experience, they then completely ignore the lack of experience and 'knees bent running around' that thier own candidate's record shows.

Kery maty have been a military loser but Bush was a military coward.

He hides behind his military power, he doesn't display it himself.

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Everything in your message is false

by maxwell edison In reply to Bush's military record ma ...

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To underestimate the legitimacy of President Bush's Air National Guard service is to discredit all people who serve, or have served, honorably in the Guard. As I've mentioned before, being a fighter pilot in the Guard is not all fun and games.

Especially at a time when most active duty fighter units are deployed overseas, as they were in the late 60s, the pilots of the Air National Guard are manning North America's first line of defense. At the time when President Bush was one such pilot, it was especially a time of great concern, as the Soviets were constantly edging into US (and Canadian) air space (probably to test our reaction time), the Soviets were considered a real threat, and those Guard pilots were the first "on the scene" to protect North American airspace.

But you should know that, Oz. I think you're familiar with NORAD. And when I was stationed there with my Canadian counterparts, we controlled such "scrambles" on more occasions than the public is (or at least was) aware of. And if any such intercept turned out to be more than just keeping the Soviets out of our airspace, those pilots would have found themselves outgunned and outmanned (as there were usually only a pair of fighters scrambled, and they would have been the first to die in defense of North America. And considering that President Bush flew the F102, a very difficult plane to fly, he was probably in more danger than the "war hero" (and I use that term with my tongue firmly planted in my cheek) John Kerry.

But again, as usual, you spew nonsensical gibberish proving, once again, that you don't know what you're talking about.

By the way, if President Bush was a "coward", as you suggest, what does that make YOU - who joined no more than a dope-smoking group of rock-and-roll groupies?

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Bush is no hero but he isn't a liar like Kerry may well be.

by sleepin'dawg In reply to Bush's military record ma ...

http://www.swiftvets.com/ Anyone who has been in the military knows that some people might get medals they haven't really earned but when someone runs around telling what a hero he has been and craps all over the very people he served with you have to take another look. In 71 Kerry appeared before the Senate and leveled some serious charges which have not and cannot be substantiated. In fact any evidence in existence seems to indicate he was lying and a lot of this evidence comes from Vietnamese sources. Canadian politicians may be no gems and Bush probably isn't either but neither they nor he register on the slime meter the way Kerry does. I spend a lot of time in Boston and nobody I've met is overly fond of Kerry. He got elected on the basis of the publicity surrounding his Senate testimony and with Kennedy backing but I wonder how much of their backing he would have received if these questions were being heard at the time. The very least he could do is release the files but I suspect there would be too much of a stench for him to live down, even if he is a politician.

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My prediction - Kerry Wins.

by TomSal In reply to 3 Months to Election - My ...

Why? Any big complex reason? Does he really have exceptional leadership qualities? Is he a mastermind of a politician? Do I think his proposed plans are all that stellar?

Nope..not really (to all of the above).

So why will he DEFINITELY win the 2004 election.

Very simple math.

More people hate GWB than like him and John Kerry has one quality...

he is NOT George W. Bush.

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You say - I say

by maxwell edison In reply to My prediction - Kerry Win ...

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You say Kerry will win because he's not GWB.

I say Kerry will LOSE because he's no GWB.

It just goes to show that most Kerry supporters aren't FOR anything.

Try to tie-down one of them to articulate what they're really FOR, and you'll be hard-pressed to get an answer. They're only against things - against everything, or so it seems. The party of doom-and-gloom; the party of creating an even larger dependent class; the party of pessimism. The party of "can't do" attitudes. People are tired of such nonsense.

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