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By RecoveringEngineer ·
For the record, this (planning and strategy) is why vendors often look foolish when customers pull out product road maps from 18 months ago and call us on the carpet for not delivering as promised. (At the same time petitioning for new features constantly which affect the plans).
When I present our product plans I use confidence factors like - 6 months out 90% confidence; 12 months out 60 - 70% confidence; and, beyond 12 months 50% confidence.
This maybe obvious, but, similar to your dilemma - vendors must respond to an ever-changing set of perceived and real requirements. I guess in the truest Darwinian sense, vendors that get most of it right most of the time - win. The others, unfortunately, don't lose per se but just limp along.

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