General discussion


Does Anyone Care Anymore??????

By sleepin'dawg ·
This is an excerpt from an article I read quite recently (yesterday) which I couldn't help thinking about overnight. So many of the points being made are valid, all the more so when applied to my own situation both corporate and personal. Lately, for one reason or another, so many of my corporate decisions have been made based on the performance of the globalization of the economy and I have been becoming increasingly aware of the potential for disaster and upheaval in the markets a la September - October 1987. We are overdue for a market correction and when it comes, so many will lose huge sums from their portfolios and IRAs unless they have found some way of positioning themselves to ride out the storm with minimal losses. There will be all sorts of opportunities to acquire investments on the cheap, in the aftermath but one can't be expected to do so if they are struggling to retain some modicum of their asset values. It gives me no pleasure in being a harbinger of doom but its better to be prepared and have a plan in place and not need it than to need some sort of plan and not have it.

From my own personal observations we've been overdue for one of those catastrophic market corrections for some time now and while these things can't be forecast with any degree of absolute accuracy I see it hitting somewhere in or after October of this year but before the same period in 2007. The markets may not correct all together but rather in a cascading effect of sector by sector but the end result could well be anywhere from 2000 to 4000 points net loss to the Dow and the corresponding indices of all the other markets including China's. The current state of the overheated Chinese economy could make them the first to slip but they should be and probably will be the first to recover. The dollar will decline further and nationwide unemployment could rise well into the double digits, approaching 15% and perhaps even 20%. As I said, does anyone care??? Is anyone even aware???

Does anybody in America care that freedom, liberty and privacy are being diluted, diminished and destroyed? Or that government is running up some of the biggest deficits in annual spending, foreign trade and national debt ever recorded? Or that America has become a de facto world empire that may already be in decline?

Kevin Phillips' new book, American Theocracy: The Peril and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil, and Borrowed Money in the 21st Century, puts together an amazing array of historical, religious, economic and political data to argue that the U.S. is about to join its imperial predecessors on the downhill slide - Rome, Spain, the Netherlands and Britain.

Phillips says the alarming signs are everywhere from the desperate attempt to retain oil sources by invading Iraq; to the "theocrats" seizing the Republican Party; to the evolution of the U.S. economy in which the production of valuable, manufactured goods has been replaced by a massive funny-money system of finance and, most ominously, government and private debt.

The scope of this book is massive and his analysis reads like a warning. Phillips sketches a future bankrupted nation by a web of religious, energy and debt that leaves America, the world's remaining superpower, all but helpless before emerging powers such as China, well before 2050.

An examination of empires in world history (Rome, Spain, Holland, and the United Kingdom), shows an identifiable progression from expansion, to dominance, to maturity and to what seems like inevitable decline. In that latter stage, governments and most people rarely see what's coming. Those who do can profit from their foresight.

Phillips traces the imperial journeys of each of these empire nations. He goes back centuries and compares those historic events to the current situation in the United States, the present world imperial power.

Phillips examines many aspects of each nation's imperial progress, politics, economics, religion, industry, finance and war. As he says: "The United States is hardly the first [empire] and we can profit from the examples of what went wrong before." There's a lot of arresting facts and figures in this book, although I don't agree with all of the author's conclusions. But you will come away fascinated with these disturbing past parallels -- and what they may portend for America's future.

It's an eye opener -- and it's not a pretty picture for Uncle Sam and Americans, sad to say.

Phillips notes that two economic predictors of imperial end times are: 1) marked declines in a nation's manufacturing and industrial capacity and; 2) an increase in what he calls "financialization" as all sorts of intangible financial services replace tangible production.

In 1950, 30% of U.S. GDP came from industry and only 10.9 from financial services. In a reversal, 2003 U.S. industrial production amounted to only 12.7% of GDP and financial services had grown to 20.4%. Even more telling, in 2005, 45% of all corporate profits came from financial services and only 7% from manufacturing. And as Phillips shows, a lot of these modern "financial services" consist of little more then creating new forms of debt, then pushing all those debt papers around while collecting fees for doing nothing really productive.

In the declining years of the Spanish, Dutch and British empires, virtually the same patterns developed as we now see in the United States. Similarities with the current dilemma of the U.S. include a huge national debt, major and continued deficit spending, worrisome huge trade imbalances and a decline in the value of the imperial nation's currency.

Sounds familiar, doesn't it? And yet another reason to consider offshore as the place for your financial haven.

Speaking of debt, borrowing and "financialization". There has lately been a lot of activity in the derivatives markets. Massive and/or a collection of minor hiccups there, have preceded all recent market turmoil of the past and with the current levels of activity. they are an accident looking and waiting for a place and chance to happen. Grab ahold of your wallets and purses, we're all going to be in for a rough ride. Some of us will get through better than others but here's to the peers of TR enduring.

Dawg ]:)

P.S. I've read the book, referred to. It is a good read for anyone even though they may have no interest in the markets and don't dabble in investments.

Edited for spelling, punctuation and additional clarity.

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Short comment.

by rob mekel In reply to Does Anyone Care Anymore? ...

On title: I do!

Will read this later on and comment you on it.

Peeeew, it's now a f***ing 45 c as our climate regulation doesn't work any more.
I do very much care that it doesn't work :)


edited for format

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Impressive post sleepin'dawg

by oneamazingwriter In reply to Does Anyone Care Anymore? ...

I've been watching this happen over the last thirty years. I don't have anything to add to what you have posted. It's simply nice to see that someone else is awake. "History repeats itself," is a fact that I have had to accept along the way. Acceptance does not mean that we have to like something.

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Acceptance is useless. You have to take steps to protect your assets.

by sleepin'dawg In reply to Impressive post sleepin'd ...

Failure to act is self-destructive and you will have no one to blame unless you do something concrete to protect your assets. This time around, it's going to be global and will make the S&L fiasco look like a minor bump in the road. You are going to see large banks merging for mutual protection and some of the could very well fail. Keeping your money under your matress could spell diaster for many, especially as the money further declines in value.

My *** is covered!!! Yours??? Mere acceptance isn't going to do much for your retirement and declining years. Your 59, if I remember correctly and have been into the end game, like it or not, for a few years now. I am not talking about settling for hamburger over roast beef here but how do you think you'll like the taste of dog food, especially the economy variety???

Dawg ]:)

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I do hear you, Dawg

by oneamazingwriter In reply to Acceptance is useless. Yo ...

What I accepted was that there wasn't anything I could do about the decisions of those around me, or the way I saw the economy going.
I was talking with a woman friend last night and she used the same example not wanting to eat dog food, but when we were done talking she said, "That's why I like being close to you. You'll get through anything!" She's headed to Finland in two weeks and I'm headed across the street to the library while free public libraries still exist.
Dawg, I posted because I was glad to see that someone else was aware of what has been happening and what is bound to happen. My errors in life are my "gold" to offer to others at this point. Mostly what I have to offer is to say, "Well, you can do that if you want, but when I tried that it didn't work well." Success, I've been told, is failure turned inside out. I already failed, Dawg. As others are on their way down, I am on my way up. I figure we may all meet in the middle.

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Do you really???

by sleepin'dawg In reply to I do hear you, Dawg

Maybe you couldn't have done anything about the economy or the decisions of others but how about your own decisions??? Those you could have done something about. If you keep doing what you've always done, you'll keep getting what you've always got; a cliche for sure but ask yourself why do cliches become cliches. It's because they are self evident truths. Sitting around whining that you can't do anything due to the decisions of others is silly because you can always act despite the decisions of anyone else. It only remains for you to get up off your behind and do something for yourself because nobody else is going to do it for you. Yes, if you're not careful, you might make some wrong decisions; ****, you might make all wrong decisions but at least you'll have had the satisfaction of them being yours and that you did try something.

I've experienced being rich and I've experienced being poor; trust me on this, being rich is way better.

Dawg ]:)

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Dawg, acceptance does not mean resignation

by oneamazingwriter In reply to Do you really???

A lot of people seem to have the two confused.
I have acted and continue to act. Do I strike you as someone who is sitting around whining? :)
As I said, I am on the way back up now. We all have ups and downs in life, Dawg. "Could have and should have" are past words. You've never made mistakes? Well, I have. I don't make the same mistakes now. I don't beat myself for anything, Dawg. I look to see what to do next and I do it. I have lived with money and without. Money is nice enough. It's not the end all of my life, though. I simply look to be responsible for what I do have and to apply lessons learned from errors in judgment in the past. Most of the time I am happier than a lot of people. Most of the time I am the one who has a little extra to share with someone. It will do.

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Dial it back a notch. Playing the dippy tart part is getting annoying.

by sleepin'dawg In reply to Dawg, acceptance does not ...

Damn woman, you obviously don't seem to get it. Acceptance in which you sit on your duff, spewing all sorts of crap about your past and doing SFA about it, is resignation if you aren't doing anything to change matters.

"I have acted and continue to act. Do I strike you as someone who is sitting around whining?"

Yes you do strike me that way. Ever since you have shown up on TR, you have been demonstrating a sickening eagerness to be "liked" and you've been jumping into the most inappropriate of places, for someone of limited skills and experience, expecting us all to respond to all your touchy-feely nonsense with approval. Well sweetcheeks let me tell you, you've missed the mark by a mile. What you have done and are doing, is being nauseating. I suppose you think your sachriny spews makes you appear perky, cute and girlish; well they don't. Most of us here find you mildly annoying. I emphasize mildly because if you were a serious annoyance, you would have received one of sleepin' dawg's infamous or notorious flames long before this.

A lot of people find perky ones annoying but not me; I absolutely hate perky and I especially hate it before my second cup of coffee in the morning. I don't even turn human until I've had my second cup. I tried being politely curt with you but that doesn't seem to work very well. You're too thick to get it. You obviously had no idea of what I was getting at but you stuck your oar in and just had to say something; didn't you??? "Hey world look at me. It's me Beth posting on TR with all the big kids even though I don't have a clue as to what is going on. They really love me here." Very sorry but we don't or at least, I should say, I don't. Your load of sugar makes me want to hurl.

Now we've all heard about your big to do with Jardinier. Now that was truly funny. Here's this old broad, on TR with complete anonimity, feeling threatened by a man, also completely anonymous but who is 10,000 miles away. I think that about covers it; don't you. Listen you blousy old airhead, you've not been in any danger for an instant and for someone with as many miles on their odometer as you have, you should have known how to handle it without having to run to someone else whining that you were feeling threatened by the big bad Australian, who is, of course, over 10,000 miles away. If you are worried about threats; there are people living much closer to you than that.

Now having read and reread your post I just have to ask, why did you bother to peer mail me??? Am I supposed to feel honoured or flattered by a pm from good ol' Beth. I ask this because your pm isn't much different than your post here. So I have to ask, why the pm??? It was this obvious overkill that has pushed my buttons this AM. Try to remember the adage, "T'is better to be silent and thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt." If the objective was to provoke me, well then you've succeeded; beyond your wildest dreams, I would imagine. You can now claim the dubious honour of having been flamed by Dawg. I know that in the background there will be some who will want to jump to your defence but unfortunately I won't be able to hear them over the sound of all the aplause. In case you don't know; there are two threads over in TRI ridiculing you and your presence here on TR. Oops, that was indiscrete of me; I probably shouldn't have let that cat out of the bag.

Well Big Red, I've had my say; I'm done. I don't like you nor do I hate you but you have definitely succeeded in annoying me. I would now suggest you go away to some place, where your limitations are not so readily apparent, and annoy them. Most people have put up with you out of some sort of misguided kindness, not wanting to hurt one so obviously challenged or crippled but now that I have been so malevolently indiscrete as to give you the swat across your nose that you have so richly deserved, you can expect others to do the same. Now go away and leave me the **** alone. If you don't, I might take to putting your peer mails up on TR for all to see and ridicule. Oh, just in case you are wondering, not only is this a reply to your post but you can consider this the reply to your peer message as well.

BTW, GG if you are reading this, I've borrowed your "dippy tart" expression. It is truly appropriate in the present circumstances.

Dawg ]:)

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'dawg - Glad to see. . . . . .

by maxwell edison In reply to Dial it back a notch. Pla ...

.....that you've toned it down a bit.

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You were wrong from your first sentence,

by oneamazingwriter In reply to Dial it back a notch. Pla ...

and didn't get any wiser from there, sleepin'dawg.Being rejected by ignorant people is fine with me. You don't like nice and I have no love for rude, crude or grossly immature. Name calling, bullying, and the like are things that most people outgrew in gradeschool, sleepin'dawg.I've addressed you and others here with respect as adults. That you cannot relate to that says who you are, not who I am. I speak only for myself. I don't look for groups of people to stand behind me so that I say "we". I am reminded of the insecure "cliques" of school days. Some people apparently don't have enough convinction to stand alone.

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oaw - Being rejected by ignorant people . . . .

by maxwell edison In reply to Dial it back a notch. Pla ... fine with me as well.

"Dawg, acceptance does not mean resignation. A lot of people seem to have the two confused."

Well, OAW, conversation does not mean discussion. You seem to have the two confused.

For the record, I said "discussion" (somewhat synonymous with debate?), not "conversation". And for good reason, perhaps?

But like you said (and something with which I agreed), being rejected by ignorant people is fine with me.

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