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  • #2285279

    The other 2004 election loser: Exit polling


    by aldanatech ·

    Now that the elections are finally over, let’s look at one of the other losers: Exit polling. During Election Day, exit polls showed that Kerry was on his way to a clear-cut victory. What went wrong? Did pollsters sample the wrong precincts? Did voters lie (perhaps embarrassed to tell “the media” they were voting for Bush)? Or did those electronic voting machines do exactly what everyone had feared ? skew the election? A fascinating thought. After all, exit polls were reckoned reliable until the 2000 presidential election. It’s still too early to know, but were the exit polls as wrong about Senate races as they were about the presidential contest?

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    • #3312616

      Poll Timing (time of day surveyed)?

      by montgomery gator ·

      In reply to The other 2004 election loser: Exit polling

      The exit polls were released in mid-day, so they did not include people who voted after work. Those who were unemployed, or otherwise did not work and were on the government dole could vote during the day, and more likely voted for Kerry, while people who voted after they got off work were more likely to vote for Bush. Not meant to bash people who were unemployed or on the dole, just that people who have jobs would have less reason to be disatisfied with Bush than those who were laid off, or dependent on government aid. Exit polls would have a better cross-section if they polled people throughout the entire period the polls were opened, and were weighted to include numbers proportional to when people voted. It makes sense that the heaviest turnouts were before work, after work, and lunch break times. Also, did the exit polls include surveys during early voting in those states that had early voting, and were they weighted appropriately based on portion of votes that were done early?

      • #3313140

        Why is the election held on a weekday?

        by jardinier ·

        In reply to Poll Timing (time of day surveyed)?

        In Australia all elections — local, State and Federal are always held on a Saturday, between 8 am and 6 pm, which is suitable for most people.

        Pre-polling is an option for those who would be working on the Saturday.

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