Warning: this post is 1200 words long.
I?ll grant you I don?t have any brilliant ideas for how to get out of Iraq without creating a disaster. However, one could also stay in Iraq and create a disaster. Our leaders have put us in a real hole, fighting a war that can?t be won, with stakes too high to just abandon the fight.
Like Viet Nam, this is an insurgency fight, waging a come-and-go fight against us and our agents. Unlike Viet Nam, it is also a tribal war and a religious war. It?s not really a civil war, because you don?t have people fighting for control of the state. Nobody in Iraq seems to believe in the country of Iraq. If you squashed all the Kurds and Sunnis so bad they couldn?t fight back ever again, and let the Shiites govern the bloody ruins, within six months they?d be fighting themselves.
In Viet Nam, Americans won every battle they fought, and in the end they had no way of winning the war. It?s not because they had a hand tied behind their back, or dumb crap excuses like that. We bombed the hell out of North Viet Nam, Laos, Cambodia, and South Viet Nam, and killed two million people, and our enemy still did not give up; our enemy had been engaged in continuous war against the Japanese, the French, and then us, for 30 years. Our objective was to create a government strong enough to stand by itself, which would take over the role of defending itself, so that we could leave and call the place free. That, and not the defeat of the communist army, was what we needed for victory, and we couldn?t achieve it. Sounds a lot like the dilemma in with Iraq, doesn?t it?
The Brits ran Iraq between World War I and World War II, and they had to re-invade the place five times. If we had thought strategically, we would have played Iraq differently. Instead, we ignored the lesson of British history in Iraq, and we ignored our own lessons from Viet Nam. The people of our government believed they could write new history, I guess. They were into bold thinking and paradigm shifting.
Our army decided that it would not do any more Viet Nams. It would only get into fights it could win with massive firepower, and not get bogged down in endless counter-insurgency wars. Guess what Iraq turned into, as soon as Saddam?s armies evaporated? Exactly the kind of war the army planned never to fight, trained itself not to fight, and forgot how to fight. When you do the massive force response tactic against guerillas operating behind the cover of civilians, you wind up doing a lot more offense to the people than to the guerillas, who are the ones you really want to kill. Make that mistake, especially among religious lunatics, and you create more guerillas. Massive muscle doesn?t lead to civil peace (that is, to victory) in this kind of war. You need artful, surgical killing, and you need to be seen supporting the people and their economy. Big force works against you, loses you the people, loses victory.
If Bush were to have done his war my way, he would have stopped at Afghanistan. He would also have done Afghanistan with enough Americans to have trapped the last of Al Qaeda at Tora Bora. Then, we could have rebuilt Afghanistan, which is a plenty big enough challenge by itself, and made a reputation for ourselves as peacemakers in a Muslim land. I would not have told a lot of lies and believed a lot of fantasies so we could go invade Iraq, where there was no Al Qaeda. Saddam was getting weaker every year, and we could have just let him sit.
If I were going to fight a war on terror, I?d first limit the scope. ?War on terror? includes everybody from Al Qaeda to the Palestinians to the Chechens to the Irish Republican Army. We don?t have a national interest in fighting them all. The first step to winning a war is to pick the war you?ll fight. I?d fight it with a lot more Special Forces troops than we currently maintain, and I?d develop a standing civil occupation division or two within the Army, and couple any military occupation with an economic mission. (It may sound like we do that in Iraq, but we just flub everything.) The war will be won by intelligence as much as anything else, so I?d work on the long job of building up spies and an institutional perspective on the place. The war will also be won by trust, so I?d have to be an army the occupied people could have faith in.
To be honest, I don?t know how to get out of the current mess, because it?s so big and serious. Now that we?ve torn Iraq to pieces, we?ve woken up regional conflicts. We have a third of our military tied down and unable to leave Iraq; we no longer have enough free troops to exert military influence as we once did. Iran has increased its diplomatic and regional influence, which is surely against our interests. Syria, Jordan, and Arabia all feel threatened, and are supporting big refugee populations, which typically include criminals, smugglers and insurgents. Turkey may invade Kurdistan if they separate from the Iraqi state. Most of Iraq is a breeding ground and training camp for Islamic nutcase west-hating guerillas. Afghanistan is breaking down, and is threatening the peace of the Pakistani border provinces. All of these trends look to me like they?ll get worse if we stay, and maybe much worse if we leave, too.
What I?d do:
1. No troop ?surge?, unless we have a strategic understanding of what it?s supposed to accomplish. Since we don?t understand it, no surge.
2. I?d put the military on a management program: learn how to do counter insurgency war. Adapt the force structure accordingly. Increase the army, permanently, by 50,000 men to account for the new occupation divisions. Build up the Special Forces, and give them the kind of creative relationship-building missions they do so well in countryside towns.
3. I?d unify the command in Iraq, with a civilian in charge. This is a nation-building, hearts-and-minds type of fight, and it needs a civilian leader.
4. Every man, woman, and military dog that goes to Iraq learns Arabic.
5. Build up the spies. Train the Iraqi cops and military.
6. Kill the enemy whenever we can, with as much delicacy as possible. Killing is essential, but the heavy hand looses the war.
7. Start pulling back, gradually. Be prepared for really ugly outcomes. Be prepared to take advantage of whatever good may develop over the years of occupation, such as an opportunity to pack up and get out.
This is sort of a modified stay-the-course strategy. It depends on the government and the military to wise up and stop fighting dumb. Given that these institutions got us into the current mess, it's a good question whether that is at all possible. However, we need access to all that damn oil that's out there; without it, we'd have to take over Arabia and Kuwait, and in general behave like Nazis, or suffer economic collapse.
I?m sure there are plenty of Bush enthusiasts who would object to all of this as playing the weak hand, who will bring up French or Russian diplomacy or some other dumb distraction, and who say that the whole thing can be fixed by finding the enemy who can be killed with our big cannon, and then shooting him with our big cannon. To which, I guess I?ll just have to smile, and listen.