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After Hours

Asteroid of doom – or maybe not

By Andy Smith March 1, 2012, 7:41 PM PST

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Asteroid of doom – or maybe not

ntAn 460 foot wide asteroid is making the rounds over the Internet as a potential threat to Earth in 2040. Headlines like: “Asteroid Threat: Why do they hate us,” “Asteroids facing unvarying barrage of high-speed impacts,” and “Armegeddon 2040.” But NASA says hold on.

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ntAsteroid 2011 AG5 was discovered in January 2011 using a telescope at the summit of Mt. Lemon north of Tucson, Az. Currently, the asteroid cannot be tracked until 2013 due to its position in the daytime sky.

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ntThe orbit of asteroid 2011 AG5 carries it beyond the orbit of Mars to halfway between Earth and Venus. It is expected to pass no closer to Earth than 1 million miles in 2023 and 10.4 millon miles in 2028. The Earth’s orbit should change it’s orbit slightly giving it a super-slim chance of hitting the Earth on Feb. 5, 2040.

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ntIn this gallery, we’ll look at the chances of Asteroid 2011 hitting Earth and how space agencies are tracking it.

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ntImage credit: NASA/JPL/Caltech/NEOPO

Asteroid of doom – or maybe not

ntPhotoshop-created images like this one have spread across the Internet. NASA says the asteroid has a 1 in 650 chance to hit the Earth. Sounds possible but when you figure that’s a 0.15 percentage chance.

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ntIf it does have a chance to strike Earth, potential solutions such as nuclear bombs or attaching a weight to one side of it to adjust its orbit have been proposed. Maybe we should watch Armageddon again.

Asteroid of doom – or maybe not

ntHere’s what an asteroid collision with Earth might look like from space.

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ntA massive impact could cause large tsunamis or what is called an impact winter where a large amount of dust collects in the stratosphere and blocks sunlight. An impact winter may have caused the extinction of dinosaurs.

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ntAn asteroid this large would create a crater of a little more than 1/2 mile wide according to an Impact Earth chart developed at Purdue University.

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ntCredit: NASA

Asteroid of doom – or maybe not

ntAsteroid 2011 AG5 is currently rated No. 1 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale which assesses the chances of an asteroid hitting Earth.

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ntCredit: NASA

Asteroid of doom – or maybe not

ntThis chart shows the number of asteroids that have been discovered and are being tracked as of Feb. 2012.

Asteroid of doom – or maybe not

ntA chart from NASA’s Near Earth Observation Program puts 2011 AG5 on the list of objects that have not been observed recently.

Asteroid of doom – or maybe not

ntHere’s a chart of the asteroids that will be passing closest to Earth from the Near Earth Observation Program.

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ntCredit: NASA

Asteroid of doom – or maybe not

ntAn asteroid 460-feet wide could create some major damage if hit a populated area. Here’s a photo of Meteor Crater in Arizona. It was formed by an asteroid about 80-miles wide between 20,000 and 50,000 years ago. It’s about 1.2 km deep (about 3/4 of a mile).

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ntCredit: Smithsonian

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