IT Employment

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European IT industry is going under in about a year or two

By jkameleon ·

Time from skill shortage lobbyist conference to PR campaign is 3-6 months, and time from its peak to next wave of layoffs is 6 months to a year. That means I probably have 2 years to start the alternative career.

I got to admit I'm pretty surprised by the bluntness of the European skill shortage lobbyists. They stated loud and clear, that they want to kick the IT wages down.

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Grass roots response.

by AnsuGisalas In reply to European IT industry is g ...

Get people moving to get heard.
Or better yet. Pull the plug; declare a europe-wide IT strike, forcing companies responsible to stick it where the sun doesn't shine, because, let's face it, someone is paying the lobbyists, and those people can be hurt, but only right now. Cut them where it bleeds, i.e. harm or threaten their passage to the "depression bounceback gravytrain", and they can be made to dump their wet dreams. But it requires immediate action, and it requires showing willingness to let their systems crash if they keep thinking bad thoughts.

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Huh? That's not what I get from the article.

by CharlieSpencer In reply to European IT industry is g ...

Everything I see in it says IT / ICT skills will continue in high demand, and that a shortage of qualified people will keep salaries up.

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It's not about ICT skills being in demand.

by jkameleon In reply to Huh? That's not what I g ...

It's about salaries being too high. It's about creating a talent glut to lower the salaries. The article is very clear about it.

Skill shortage shouting is usually the loudest about a year before economic crash & mass layoffs.

The best example of this phenomena is Harris Miller & ITAA "critical programmer shortage" campaign in 1998 and 1999. Dotcom crash happened soon afterwards, and hundreds of thousands of programmer jobs were lost, never to return.

The next shortage shouting wave came in 2006 and 2007. If you google "i(c)t skill shortage", "i(c)t talent shortage", "it talent pipeline", "it careers" "young people", "computer science enrollment" in various combinations, you'll get the picture, I think.

As far as I was able to figure out, it goes as follows. Economic situation gets a bit more tense, profit margins narrow, companies begin to struggle, and management has to justify less than stellar results. One of the best excuses is lack of <i>adequate</i> talent, like: "We are reluctant to expand our business, to sign new contracts, because we can't find the <i>right</i> people to do the technical part. Yeah, there are tons of unemployed techies out there, sure enough, but none of them is good enough for us. They simply lack the <i>exact</i> skill set we need. And yeah, they demand too much money as well." Once repeated often enough, this starts to echo around the politics and media even without the deliberate campaign.

Shortage shouting is a sort of early warning of impending economic troubles. A sort of proactive, covert cost-cutting measure, if you will.

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A suggestion

by Ed Woychowsky In reply to It's not about ICT skills ...

Read Mark Twain's <u>Life on the Mississippi</u>, it's available online. I particularly recommend the chapters on learning to be a cub pilot. It seems even though more and more pilots were needed salaries were going down. This oddity was due to pilots creating too many cubs, which in two or three years became pilots themselves.<p/>
Twain, covers how this problem was resolved, makes for an interesting read.

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Too deep for me.

by CharlieSpencer In reply to It's not about ICT skills ...

Apparently my two semesters of economics aren't going to aid me in following this one. Forget I said anything and I'll butt out.

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Here's the punchline:

by AnsuGisalas In reply to Too deep for me.

"According to industry analysts, Europe is set to have a shortage of 300.000 experts in the information and communication technologies (ICT) sector by 2015, as it is expected that 90% of all jobs, across sectors, will require the use of digital expertise."

- See?
They're entering a completely grabbed-out-of-*** "expectation" (suuure, welders will need microsoft certifications in 2015... as will lunch ladies, truck drivers and streetsweepers... and farmers!), and following from this totally bogus expectation they produce an equally bogus "shortage".

Since the expectation is false, the whole campaign amounts to making governments train excess techs, creating widespread unemployment which serves to artificially lower wages for all techs.

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Wrote that down

by santeewelding In reply to Here's the punchline:

The part about welders.

What about the lowest of the low: linguists?

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You read an insult into that?

by AnsuGisalas In reply to Wrote that down

About needing Microsoft certifications?Seriously?
But yes, unfortunately all linguists will indeed need certifications, as many as possible.

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Spur to action

by santeewelding In reply to You read an insult into t ...

Not, reeling from insult, or dumbstricken as yourself.

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Spur it is!

by AnsuGisalas In reply to You read an insult into t ...

Linguists being generally unemployable, we really are the lowest of the low, at least commercially speaking. Buying power not that great either.
But [_]3 I'm ok with it.
I realized after the fact that I made a list that could be construed as a list of crap jobs. Such a construction is no product of mine, but of the prejudices of the construer.
I just don't see how an increase in the percentage of jobs requiring the use of a computer (90%, seriously?) can lead to an increased need for IT pros equalling a full 1% of the total population of the european union.

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