This is a statement from a buddy who is still in Iraq. If he is reading this post let me say that I saw the photo of him and another co-conspirator (who will remain unnamed) going after more helipad lights. I worry about you guys! Don’t loose your head over a couple of lights.
“Randy commented that he and Dave heard a report on how Iraqi bankers are being terrorized, etc.
The other day, while having my haircut, the barber confided he is scared to death of the Mahdi militia and he doesn’t think much of PM Maliki, “Maliki, you know, you know, Maliki, he Iran [points finger to head], he Iran.” He then elaborated, “Maliki ‘Ali Baba’, you know; you know Ali Baba? Maliki Ali Baba, Ali Baba” – which I took as a reference to Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Baba).
The flip side of this is Kurdistan. So, even if Iraq flies apart at the seams, Kurdistan can survive on its own. Kurdistan is safe, developing with two new international airports, and resource rich with newly discovered untapped oil fields. (www.theotheriraq.com)
There are four or five banks with heavy foreign investments (see attached), and they are expanding – primarily into Kurdistan.”
So my friend and I have discussed this before but I wanted to put it to a larger audience – What are your thoughts on the future for Iraq?
Scenario #1 Democrats gain huge leads in mid-term elections and force the administration to begin troop withdrawals from Iraq.
In this scenario the external forces that have put so much pressure in Iraq will become invigorated and will turn their aggressions on the current Iraqi government. Civil war will ensure with the Kurds confining themselves to Kurdistan to the north and doing what it can to close its southern borders. The Shiite south will align itself with Iran. While I do not see the Arab Shiites joining nationally with the Persian Shiites I do see a strong theocratic bond that will then turn its resources against other western interests in the area (primarily Israel). The Sunni minority will suffer the most while being relegated to the eastern dessert the people will be impoverished and will either flee to Syria, or will continue to wage an increasingly feeble civil aggression against the Kurds to the north and the Shiites to the south.
Scenario #2 The Republicans maintain control of house and the senate and the efforts in Iraq get ramped up.
The difficulty in Iraq is that while the Coalition forces know what should happen to stabilize the country the political leaders of the new Iraqi government are not willing to become so draconian and do what needs to be done. Muqtada Al Sadr is a prime example of this. He should have been arrested along time ago and his Madi Army should have been forcibly disbanded. The Iraqi government and it’s military has been given increasingly more responsibility for it’s own security over the past year. During this time foreign fighters have flooded into the country from Syria and Iran and while opposed to one another have both attacked Iraqi government forces (army and police) and the coalition forces.
Bottom line is: If we cut and run now Iraq WILL descend into civil war which will destabilize the region for years to come. If we stay we must convince the Iraqi government to do what is necessary to win the war and repel the foreign terrorists that have infiltrated Iraq.
