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Where is Bin Laden? What are we waiting for?

By admin ·
Sorry for the repost Max, but I am curious if anyone knows anything.

"Bin Laden 'surrounded'

February 22, 2004

A BRITISH Sunday newspaper is claiming Osama bin Laden has been found and is surrounded by US special forces in an area of land bordering north-west Pakistan and Afghanistan.

"US helicopters already sited on the Afghanistan border will swoop in to extricate him," the newspaper says. It claims bin Laden and his men "sleep in caves or out in the open. The area is swept by fierce snow storms howling down from the 10,000ft-high mountain peaks. Donkeys are the only transport."

The special forces are "absolutely confident" there is no escape for bin Laden, and are awaiting the order to go in and get him.

"The timing of that order will ultimately depend on President Bush," the paper says. "Capturing bin Laden will certainly be a huge help for him as he gets ready for the election."

The article says bin Laden's movements are monitored by a National Security Agency satellite.

On Thursday last week, General Richard Myers, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, said America had been engaged in "intense" efforts to capture bin Laden, who was believed to be hiding in the border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan."

The Sunday Telegraph"

Did I miss his capture? If not, what are we waiting for?

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He's in US control

by mrafrohead In reply to Where is Bin Laden? What ...

Admin, he's in US control. He'll pop up JUST before the election...

Hopefully I'm wrong, but if this is anything like an M. Knight Shamalyan movie, I'm right on the nose...

I know what you're talking about, wasn't in the U.S. press, but was known around the world???

Nothing happened..... we'll evenetuallhy see, i hope...


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The Possibilities

by maxwell edison In reply to Where is Bin Laden? What ...

1. He's dead and nobody knows it.

2. He's dead and only his comrades know it.

3. He's dead and only the U.S. authorities know it.

4. He's dead and both his comrades and the U.S. authorities know it.

5. He's in U.S. custody, but the information hasn't been released.

6. He's under U.S. surveillance and, for some reason, has not been taken into custody.

7. The U.S. authorities don't know precisely, but they have "leads" that they are following in an effort to find him.

8. The U.S. authorities have no idea where he is.

Eliminate possibility number 3: This would be the most unlikely scenario. There's no way it serves any useful purpose to keep this quiet. Moreover, if he were know to be dead, someone would surely have leaked the information by now.

Eliminate possibility number 4: Same reason as number 3.

Eliminate possibility number 5: I don't think he's in U.S. custody. If he were, it could not be kept quiet- again, someone would surely leak the information. Moreover, Osama's own comrades would know if he had been apprehended, and that would make it even more unlikely that such information would not be leaked. To think that the Bush administration is keeping his apprehension "under-wraps" is ignoring the fact the President Bush would be totally lambasted and irrevocably politically damaged if he did. That theory is pure nonsense.

Eliminate number 8: They would have to have at least "some idea" where he might be, at least in my estimation. After all, there is a 25 million dollar reward on his head, so they have to be getting at least some leads, or so we could surmise.

Numbers 1 and 2 are possible, but not likely, since there has been credible evidence (tapes, voice identification, etc.) to suggest otherwise.

So that leaves possibilities 6 and 7.

I would eliminate, however, any "conspiracy" type scenario - "waiting", for example, for a politically expedient time to capture him. There would be way too much to lose, and way too little to gain. Moreover, it's not just President Bush who has anything to say in the matter. I can't imagine such an order being given, much less being quitely carried out all the way down the command line.

I think it may be either 6 or 7. If I were to guess, I'd say that the authorities have a pretty good idea of where he is, but for logistical reasons, they just can't "pounce". For example, there's a strong possibility that he's in Pakistan, and U.S. forces don't have permission to enter that country. Therefore, any attempt to apprehend him would have to be on a very small scale, or risk igniting a regional disaster.

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by Oz_Media In reply to The Possibilities

A&E's Biography was about Bin Laden last weekend. It didn't point any fingers or make assumptions but simply showed all the possibilities. They say they MAIN problem with thracking him is that he always seems to select countries with virtually no laws and the USA has no jurisdiction. These 'hideaways' are what has protected him since the early 90's when he was building his training camps, it was next to impossible for Clinton to trck him or know WHICH training camp he was in when Clinton bonbed Afghanistan. It was just a crap shoot but at least destroyed the camps for a while and perhaps reduced his numbers at the time.

I think that given the past we can surmise that the world's 'intelligence' of these countries is weak at best, these countries and regimes have been built on deception, I don't think anyone has sufficient intelligence and therefore we just sit and wait for him to emerge.

IF he is still alive, which I am certain he is because SOMEONE would want the credit for turning up a body, he is merely laughing as he always has at the US for not catching him at his game of cat and mouse.

I believe he will turn up, or at least his trained followers will, and terror will again be on the horizon.

I don't think TERRORISM as a whole can be stopped period. It's a futile attempt to ensure security, the same money (180 Billion or so) could have been better spent in improving your intelligence and alliances around the globe.

We can make it harder for terrorists to attack us by improving our own intelligence, but I don't think terrorism will ever be ended, it goes back to the dawn of time and will until the end of time.

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That would have been interesting to see

by maxwell edison In reply to Biography

I imagine he's been moving around inside Pakistan, being protected by hundreds, if not thousands, of his followers, and the Pakistani government can't (or won't) do anything to apprehend him. They have big problems with India, as you probably know, and the USA is pretty much on the Indian's side of that dispute. That's not to suggest that the USA has always agreed with India concerning the various quibbles between them, but we're certainly more aligned with India than with Pakistan.

I further imagine that we have several hundred "operatives" (both military and CIA) tracking bin Laden's movements inside of Pakistan, but they would be out-gunned and out-manned for a frontal assault to capture him - not to mention the fact that we shouldn't be there in the first place. (At least we don't have "official" permission.) These operatives are probably trying to bribe for and buy information and access in the hopes that someone will turn on bin Laden. There are probably a dozen or more teams of special forces inside of Pakistan, waiting to be sent at a moment's notice - or a second's notice, to swoop and grab if the opportunity presented itself. But it hasn't yet been possible. The last thing we want to do is bungle an attempt to snatch him inside a country in which we should not be.

And, of course, we don't hear about any of it because secrecy is vital.

That's just my guess, of course. (But it would make for a great book.)

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Excellent Analysis, Max

by HereInOz In reply to The Possibilities

I tend to agree with what you say, that it is probably 6 or 7, and your analysis of the reasons why he is still at large is probably highly accurate. I would, however, like to raise a possibility around option 6.

Now, please don't think that what I am going to say is what I think is the case, and I have no evidence whatever to suggest it is - I am just floating a possibility here.

We know that the Family Bush has very close ties, on a business and financial level, with the family Bin Laden. We also know that Osama bin Laden is most definitely the black sheep of the Family Bin Laden, and does not have a lot of time for his family, in part due to their ties with the USA.

Nevertheless, blood ties run very deeply in countries such a Saudi Arabia. It is always possible that the head of the Family bin Laden, has spoken to the head of the Family Bush, along the line of:
"Please, chase my son as hard as you like, but do not catch him. He is, after all, still my son. It may be to your economic detriment were you to do so."

As I said, I have no evidence to suggest this is the case, but I find it an interesting hypothesis. It would be a situation that could put the Family Bush in a difficult no win situation.

I am generally not a conspiratory theorist - I just find this possibility fascinating.

Tear it to shreds - please just do it politely :-)


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Interesting theory - but color me skeptical

by maxwell edison In reply to Excellent Analysis, Max

Since I obviously can't see behind the closed doors of the Bush "family business", my skepticism is also speculation. However, I am extremely skeptical for the simple reason that the whole thing is bigger than just President Bush and/or his family.

The problem with "conspiracy theories", such as the one you suggested, is that it gives too much credit to one man - or to one family. Look past the "elected government" and the political posturing, and there are some pretty big wheels in motion. There are too many high-powered people in both the government and the military that just wouldn't let that happen. It's more than just President Bush who want's bin Laden. There are 300 million more of us - many of whom are very powerful.

I will suggest one thing, however, and we will probably be in agreement. There's a lot more to this that we know - or may ever know. (Even going back to the Clinton years.) But I prefer to avoid the "conspiracy theories". After all, I'm still trying to find out who really killed President Kennedy in 1963, organized crime syndicates or Fidel Castro - or both. (And we still won't normalize relations with Cuba.......interesting, don't you think?)

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From what I've seen

by Oz_Media In reply to Excellent Analysis, Max

The same Biography I mentioned before actually did a big piece on Bin Laden's family.

In 19** he was establishing secret training camps and disowned his own family. In 1993, he is said to have had a religious argument with his family and thier differences had caused his father to disown him.

Now I am not from Iran obviously, but I do have a lOT of East Indian and Pakistani friends. Culture is allowed to be kept quite diverse here and these families live by the same principals they would at home. When a Pakistani family (or Hind) has internal issues that lead to a member being diswoned, that's it, end of story and they never see nor speak of each other again.

One can then assume that seeing as Bin Laden and his family are in thier holmeland and have extremely strong religious beliefs, the same must be true in Afghanistan.

I know North American families are very tight in the social respect, but even in England and Germany the bond is very different than it is out here. People seem to enjoy individuality and personal freedoms a little more and don't spend as much time as a family unit. Perhaps this is due to the wars that forced young men and women to grow up fast, procreate and work for a living.

In North America (especially in modern times) families stay together much longer, kids stay at home while at college, they even take a year off between high school and college, there's less of a rush to grow up and move on.

Sorry for the segue, but i think it's important to explain that there are considerable cultural differences which also flow down to the family unit that must be considered.

Yes blood is blood and family is family, but it is not taken so strong elsewhere and simple squabbles mixed with stubborness will break some families up for good.

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Anyone want a conspiracy theory?

by HereInOz In reply to Excellent Analysis, Max

Hmm, a couple of bloody good arguments. I kind of liked the theory but I may have to park it in the unlikely bin (no pun intended). I will not be laden with it further (pun intended).

Thanks again blokes, I have to agree with both of you, and thanks for your analysis. It is good to be able to put a point of view then receive a coherent counter view that is actually good enought to make me change my mind.



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by Black Panther In reply to Where is Bin Laden? What ...

He is probably sipping coffee in a NY high-rise!

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Good way to pin point the next attack.

by Oz_Media In reply to In NY

You just need to wait for him to get up and rush out of the highrise.

(I guess that's SORTA tasteless but not intended to make light of 9/11)

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