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    • #3139877

      poppycock

      by apotheon ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      This guy has his facts bass-ackwards in so many ways I don’t even know where to start. There are some actual threats to the survival of Linux, but this guy managed to construct an entire article prognosticating the end of Linux without referring to a single one of the real threats to its survival. Every supposed threat he brings up is a fantasy based on profound misunderstanding of things like software development process, political process, and the computer hardware industries.

      • #3139868

        What a Bullcrap article!

        by why me worry? ·

        In reply to poppycock

        The author has absolutely no concept of software or harware and how it interacts with different operating systems. This author is clearly talking out of the anus with no facts to back it up.

    • #3139863

      ‘Y’

      by dawgit ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      did Windows die in the year 2000? oops, no. This guy has got to be located in the US., and he is one of the clueless at that. Just because he can’t figure it out, he thinks it’s just going to go away. He really needs to find his own planet. He even references the “Cinema Industry” as one example, does he have any idea what has been done lately (and making money) on which OS? (and, now I know why it’s not done in the US, but in Germany.) tsk-tsk, Who’s listening to this truck load of krap? Sad, so sad…. -d

      • #3139836

        Author of article is a “YASU”

        by why me worry? ·

        In reply to ‘Y’

        YET ANOTHER STUPID USER!

      • #3139807

        not american

        by jaqui ·

        In reply to ‘Y’

        Italian.

        says so on the bottom of the article.

    • #3139779

      What a twonk

      by tony hopkinson ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      50 new ubuntu users, now there’s a representative sample of the linux community.

      Must be some sort of stooge for the media industry, or he’s an idiot.

      We are going to have to get rid of all the lamp servers in the world because we can’t play mp3’s on them ?
      If he was a american he’d be a muppet.

      • #3139732

        MP3s?

        by apotheon ·

        In reply to What a twonk

        I can play MP3s just fine. What the hell is he talking about?

        • #3139658

          He seemed to be saying

          by tony hopkinson ·

          In reply to MP3s?

          Linux will die because 50 ubuntu newbies couldn’t get media player going.

          If he wasn’t saying that I’m even more confused.

        • #3202934

          Forget MP3’s for a moment and more to the point

          by hal 9000 ·

          In reply to MP3s?

          I would love to see the Movie Industry stuck with Windows Boxes to do all their CG work.

          That would increase the money spent by several Billion $ and add several years to each movie that relies on a lot of CG.

          I wounder if this Yobo has even seen some of the Commercial programs available for this platform and is only basing his beliefs alone the free stuff that anyone can download as they see fit.

          Personally I will not be moving any of my Nix Servers off Linux particularly the IBM Blades as they have a 48 Hour Guarantee for a fix for the supported Nix Products that they sell. I only wish I could get that fast a service from MS when it’s required.

          Col

        • #3202874

          You can get a 48-hour turnaround from Microsoft.

          by nighthawk808 ·

          In reply to Forget MP3’s for a moment and more to the point

          Just tell them you think your employer’s copies of Office are unlicensed.

          Oh, wait, you meant tech support? Never mind.

        • #3202811

          If you did that

          by hal 9000 ·

          In reply to You can get a 48-hour turnaround from Microsoft.

          It wouldn’t require 48 Hours Turn Around the MS Legal Boys & Girls would be hitting your place within the time it takes them to reach the place. 😀

          I’ll always remember the Head of the Legal Department at MS addressing a Partners Meeting telling everyone that she didn’t want to come off as a [b]Nasty Bitch[/b] then I got an Enforcement Alert from MS with her name on it telling how that had hit a Computer shop for selling trade in computers without the original OEM CD’s as if most home owners actually keep the CD’s or even know that they are important. :^0

          Another one that I got a good laugh over was the fact that when Government Departments sell off computer equipment the Volume License dies with the hardware as you can not supply an install CD with every computer that’s straight from MS Copies don’t apply as they are [b]Pirate[/b] but originally MS only supplies 1 Original Copy but when they are sold off you are supposed to supply one original CD with every computer. MS knows how to make money don’t they?

          Col

        • #3140154

          The movie industry is more than happy to use Linux

          by Anonymous ·

          In reply to Forget MP3’s for a moment and more to the point

          They just don’t want YOU using it.
          I had a little trouble following the guys article. It might be a little chicken-little, but his points aren’t entirely invalid. The big corps are big fans of proprietary DRM. And they have lots of money with which to influence Legislators to make stupid suggestions like, requiring PC builders to include a mechanism which will caue the PC to self-destruct if the user downloads a pirated MP3.

        • #3139990

          The definition of Pirate

          by hal 9000 ·

          In reply to The movie industry is more than happy to use Linux

          Depends on where you live. Here we are allowed to copy out CD’s & DVDs without a problem provided that we don’t sell them there is no issue.

          That’s something that the Recording Industry got really dirty about when they took a couple of teenagers to court last year only to see a minor slap on the wrists dished out and the hardware returned to them.

          I’ve never seen more unhappy faces than those on the Recording Industry people involved. Though to be fair I must point out that here there is a Tax on every Blank piece of Media that’s supposed to go to the recording industry to cover coping of their material and even some is supposed to go to the artists as well though currently I don’t believe that happens but the big companies get their [b]Pound of Flesh[/b] without doing a single thing. Even some of the big Recording Houses are the big players in making the blank media so they are raking it in from all directions without a second thought to what it is that they are claiming to protect.

          Currently at the moment here I get called in to one of the Movie Production Studios here to do any work that their own Techs are incapable of doing. Apparently they employ people with MS qualifications and then throw them into a Linux environment and wounder why they fail to maintain the systems and get them working properly. As most can not see the benefit of using Nix they don’t stay long as to them there is no [b]Real Work[/b] involved but actually most feel useless and are incapable of doing the work required.

          It’s time that the schools started teaching something other than MS as there are many products currently available that just can not use any Windows Based OS to run on. But the money great and much better than anything I could charge for a Windows Environment. Mind you the Down Time is also much more expensive as well so it’s all relative I suppose. 😀

          Col

        • #3141360

          They do…

          by dawgit ·

          In reply to The definition of Pirate

          in Germany, Poland, Russia, France, Sweden, oh, you get the idea. I don’t know why they don’t in the US anymore. (maybe I just can’t see it) and I don’t know and can’t talk about the Ausies. I had the idea that they had been hot on open sourse. Am I wrong in that Col? In Europe however it’s count-down time, and they’re probably taking bets on when MS goes bye-bye. (No, it’s not that bad, but not far from it.)

        • #3141187

          Most of the Government Departments

          by hal 9000 ·

          In reply to They do…

          re tied up with MS in a big way here though places like Tax & Defence run Unix systems mainly but the majority of the other Government departments run some form of Windows.

          I think that a Bureaucrat made that decision because they got a [b]Deal[/b] from Billy Boy. Anyway the current AU Government is so deep in the US pocket that you don’t know where they are or more importantly what they are doing in there. 😀

          Private business is a different story though as many are moving to Nix or BSD and away from MS as they dislike the way that MS is currently doing business. Currently I have a lot of small business with Nix Servers and some form of Windows on the desktop though many are currently trying an alternative Desktop OS but some are holding off not because of any love of MS but because their Accountants are telling them that they have to run Windows so the accounting packages will swap data and make tax returns and the Quarterly BAS Statements cheaper and faster.

          I have a couple of companies running MYOB on Linux nd the accountants so far haven’t picked up any problems but it’s only been about 18 months so far.

          Where MS is making big inroads is with their Small Business Partner Program where they are brainwashing all the young ones into believing that Windows is a One Size Fits All and can’t be improved upon. Though to be fair to MS when you get one of the Techs giving a lecture they skip over the TCO slides and just say I have to show you this but you make up your own mind on this issue.

          Some of the bigger business are switching back to Thin Clients and running Nix on the server but most people seem to think that this only counts as 1 install. But when used this way it dramatically lowers the TCO and reduces the expensive desktop PC’s. Currently it’s a bit of a mixed bag going on at the moment as there are a lot of MS Small Business Partners trying to get in on the action and pushing MS to the determent of the business.

          I’m doing some work for a movie house here who can only hire MS trained Techs to run their Linux Blades so they know next to nothing on how to manage these systems and I generally see a new face whenever I go there trying to make things work. While the money is great and makes working MS look petty I wouldn’t like to do this full time as the end users tend to mess things up and they need it working about 20 minutes before they broke it. Of course the 45 minute drive to get there doesn’t help any. 😀

          But I found one of their new techs trying to load 2003 on a 2K CPU Blade and not understanding why it was so expensive to License and even more important why it didn’t work anywhere near as well as the Red Hat Installation that it previously had on it. Thankfully that was only a Trial Version so it didn’t cost them anything but time but it was painful to put right after that incident. 🙁

          Basically we are seeing 3 main players here MS Red Hat & SUSE and the market is fairly evenly divided between them at the moment with MS having the edge on the corporate Desktop but that’s a shrinking market all the time and as more Thin Clients come on line their market is getting smaller and smaller.

          Col

        • #3141078

          That is supposed to be the case in the US as well

          by Anonymous ·

          In reply to The definition of Pirate

          Fair-use laws are supposed to allow users to copy media they own, for backup/archival purposes, or to transfer to an alternate media. (We had the industry tax on casette tapes, not sure if that continued with CD/DVD media).

          And The Industry tried to squish fair use with the DMCA, with some marginal success. And they will keep trying.

          Sure they love to save money with Linx when making movies, but they are big fans of windows DRM efforts froma consumer standpoint. Sort of a Bite-the-hand-that-feeds-you thing.

        • #3138862

          I can’t argue with that

          by hal 9000 ·

          In reply to That is supposed to be the case in the US as well

          But as most of those places are run by [b]Bean Counters[/b] what else can you expect?

          I always get a good laugh when some so called new Security is implemented and then see the marketing people complaining about the drop in sales of Blank Media.

          Col

    • #3202971

      Bad translation?

      by rknrlkid ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      I wonder if something was lost in the translation from Italian to English. The guy seems to be saying that Linux will die out, but his blog is a rolling advertisement for Ubuntu and KDE. It is fairly confusing. (To be fair, I cannot understand Italian, so I have no idea what his blog is saying other than the names!)

      But, he has posted his CV for anyone who is interested:

      http://www.simpler.it/files/brunozzi-simone_resume_2006-08-03.pdf

    • #3202871

      I paused the DVD I was watching

      by nighthawk808 ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      on my Linux box to read THAT?

      I must be lying. Everyone knows you can’t watch The Simpsons–err, I mean, DVD’s with Linux. It’s a movie industry conspiracy to crush it with Windows-only DRM. After all, the OSS community doesn’t have any genuises in it capable of adapting an OS you have the source code to, and they certainly can’t be bright enough to reverse-engineer things and write a few lines of code that would allow me to watch things I’ve legally purchased.

      Boy, I sure wish someone would write something that would allow scrambled DVD content to play on my openSUSE box. I’ve even got the perfect name for it if someone ever manages the impossible feat of adapting to change: DeCSS. Isn’t that a clever name? It’s too bad there aren’t any clever people out there that can make sure my state-of-the-art OS stays state-of-the-art.

      WARNING: The Surgeon General has declared this post unsafe for the humor-deficient and/or extremely gullible. Read at your own risk. The author disclaims all liability for aneurism, apoplexy, extreme bewilderment, or you looking like a fool after you took it seriously and responded with a semi-illiterate flame to said author. By reading the above post you have agreed to these terms. Have a good day.

      • #3202831

        But I was told Linux couldn’t do multimedia!

        by jmgarvin ·

        In reply to I paused the DVD I was watching

        How can you possibly watch your movies without Windows Media Player or Windows XP Media!??

        And everyone knows MP3s only work in Windows…

        Oh, I also have a bridge for sale if you’d like to buy it…

      • #3202807

        you forgot

        by kiltie ·

        In reply to I paused the DVD I was watching

        the standard element of any modern EULA

        (paraphrasing)

        [b]”By even reading this EULA you agree to any future changes made to this EULA, and totally revoke any rights you thought you previously have held”[/b]

        .
        .
        .

        I was born a cynic, I will die a cynic

    • #3202819

      wordy but accurate

      by helpusobiwan ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      The author is verbose but has a fairly good grasp on the future of computing for the masses IMHO. One might even guess that he’s had a peek at Microsoft’s 10-year plan! 🙂

      • #3202809

        Well M$ 10 year plan is looking quite Second Hand

        by hal 9000 ·

        In reply to wordy but accurate

        At the moment with Dual Core CPU’s with HTT not being properly supported with Vista.

        What’s going to happen when the Quad Cores hit the streets and then shortly after Quad Cores with HTT which will be the [b]Must Have CPU[/b] for the Older Set who wish to edit Videos for the Grand Kids.

        More to the point it will be interesting to see how MS is going to classify what a CPU actually is. If anything the advances in technology will do mare harm to MS than to Open Source remember Windows still isn’t scalable enough for a lot of CPU’s and a Quad Core with HTT is going to look like 8 to any MS OS.

        Col

        • #3140485

          The last I heard from MS

          by dawgit ·

          In reply to Well M$ 10 year plan is looking quite Second Hand

          On this subject, was for the customers (us) to purchase 7 additional licences. That did not go over very well here in Europe.

        • #3140387

          I can imagine it wouldn’t :D

          by hal 9000 ·

          In reply to The last I heard from MS

          At the last MS Road Show in May here they where silent on the entire thing. If the Legal People get involved I do not doubt that for a minute the MS Legal people will be saying that there are 8 CPU’s on the M’Board and the opposition will be saying but they are on 1 chip and you can not chose not to install the other 7 CPU’s so you only have 1 CPU in place and MS Windows should support this arraignment.

          I’ve already heard it mentioned that the EULA for XP Pro specifically states that it can be used with 2 CPU’s so from a strictly legal sense that means that you can install it on 2 different single processor computers and that was from a Barrister in Corporate Law.

          But I’ve just got the latest from Intel titled [b]Build on a Powerful Intel Platform for Linux.[/b] While I haven’t had a chance to give it a run that will have to wait till work finishes today it looks interesting and Intel may be supporting Linux far more in the near future re

          http://www.intel.com/go/linux

          I’ve just received the [b]Intel Quick Start Kit for Linux.[/b]

          Col

    • #3202804

      I am not worthy

      by kiltie ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      Once I met such awful English as

      “One of the strongest critic moved against those companies from the digital freedom fans will fall, and their number will fall also”

      (I know he is Italian, but, hasn’t he got any peers to help proof read?)

      and items like:

      “Why 2018?
      According to numerous sources, the passage to mobile terminals in substitution to personal PCs”

      Yeah, right, so why haven’t we seen any of these “numerous sources”? In your mind only, I suspect.

      I stopped reading further, such nonsense!!

      I am not worthy to comment now, since I tossed it in the trash bin.

      • #3202772

        I’m waiting for the smoke to clear

        by chasster ·

        In reply to I am not worthy

        What is this guy smoking?????????

        This article is about as stupid as to say that all car manufacturers will finally agree to make one single car for everyone in the world to drive.

        The only thing that I say that he left out was some references to VoDo.

        • #3140236

          class study

          by cwm ·

          In reply to I’m waiting for the smoke to clear

          This guy writes some good fiction. He must be working for MS

        • #3140137

          I get the impression that he uses Linux

          by Anonymous ·

          In reply to class study

          Maybe I read A different article than most of the rest of you though. It seemed to me his point was a concern that Big Corp and Big gov. might conspire (un/intentionally) to kill Linux. They want to build proprietary hardware, and proprietary SW/DRm, that will ensure that you aren’t taking their music/movies/other content without being properly/legally licensed to do so. They want to make sure they can control what you see and hear.

          It seems to me his newspost was an effort to encourage people to be involved politically to make sure Big biz/gov doesn’t (slowly and sneakily) do this.

          Yes it is obvious English isn’t his first language, and yes he may be taking his points to the extreme (persuasion article doesn’t do that), but I am not sure he really deserves the tar and feathering he got here.

          Not an incredible piece of writing, but there were a few thought provoking points, I thought.

    • #3202749

      NAH!

      by lnxguy ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      Dude is a ‘tard. A ‘tard surrounded by a socialist government and a choice fearing society.

      Nothing to see here. Move on…..

    • #3140659

      Responses are incredibly narrow view.

      by theoldman59 ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      I find the posts (except one sane post) on this board incredibly narrow.

      First, do I expect Linux to die by 2018? No, not really. Linux has proven a masterful Server platform for Networks. Economical, powerful, scalable, etc.

      Second, do I expect Linux to be on many desktops in 2018? No, not really. The multi-media issues are only one issue that plague the Linux OS, and the supporting Open Source Community has no idea how the business really works.

      Worst of all is the leadership of the Open Source community that write the licenses governing Open Source. Rev 3 of the GPL license (currently under review, may become available in the future) requires that all DRM type encryption be made public.

      Even Torvolds won?t touch that one with a 10 foot pole. If that becomes the governing license, Linux is dead, plain and simple.

      The Entertainment Industry will never voluntarily open their encoding to the public as required by the draft. That means that any DVD viewer for Open Source by default is unlicensed and illegal. Doesn?t mean they won?t exist, but the won’t exist legally.

      The Free Software Foundation, home of the GPL License openly fights against ownership of Intellectual Rights is at the heart of the issue.

      DRM is only one aspect of the so called ?Open Source? or ?Free Software? push. Read the license agreements and see the demands of the license agreements. While it looks like a simple thing to a single developer, to a corporation with a patent library, the legal entanglements may be crushing.

      For Open Source in general and Linux specifically to go forward, it must integrate better with the corporate model, not the stereo-typical software pirate it is now associated with.

      • #3140635

        Actually I don’t see a problem with the GPL

        by hal 9000 ·

        In reply to Responses are incredibly narrow view.

        If it gets so bad people or even companies don’t need to apply it. I currently do some work for a Movie House and they are running Nix on the desktop for CG production and the software that they are using isn’t Open Source it’s most defiantly Closed Source.

        Currently there is nothing stopping a Company or person developing a Software Application for any platform and selling it without a GPL actually in some case this is counterproductive to the needs of the customers. Once people get away from the idea of [b]Free Software[/b] they will be much better off.

        Currently I sell both Red Hat and SUSE on servers and everyone of my customers love the OS that’s supplied. Novell is currently making a Push onto the Desktop with SUSE 10 and if they manage to get their way that solution/option will be much better for the general masses than Windows ever could be.

        Currently there is no [b]One Size Fits Everyones Needs[/b] and that is why what is commonly called Open Source products will flourish for a very long time to come. The ability to chose what you want on your desktop is [b]Important[/b] and MS doesn’t make this offer to the business world. That in itself is MS’s biggest problem which they don’t seem interested in addressing.

        Col

        • #3140479

          Pretty much sums it up…

          by dawgit ·

          In reply to Actually I don’t see a problem with the GPL

          Almost exactly as you stated, is actually what’s happening here in Germany. The companys and in fact whole citys are leaving MS, and it seems to be a progress issue (as 2 switch, 4 observe, as those 4 switch, 12 more are watching…..) also. The only triping point so far is the licencing aspect, open is NOT free for everyone, business need to keep in mind the fine print, “Free for Personal Use”. But even after fees are setteled on, Open Sorce, and Linux prove to be cheeper.

      • #3140600

        Forget GPL_v3

        by tony hopkinson ·

        In reply to Responses are incredibly narrow view.

        in it’s current incarnation it’s not happening.

        If the community chooses not to buy in and I can’t think of a single reason why they would, it’s just load of self serving waffle.

        You have an interesting definition of narrow by the way, there’s only one way to be closed but there are many degrees of open.

      • #3140407

        And this is a bad thing how?

        by nighthawk808 ·

        In reply to Responses are incredibly narrow view.

        If you post something that says throwing fuzzy puppies off of skyscrapers just for the sadistic pleasure of watching them die is perfectly fine, you’d have a pretty narrow range of responses, too. Narrow != bad.

    • #3140651

      More like.

      by now left tr ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      Could it be… the more somthing can do, that the masses can ‘work’, the worse it eventually gets!

    • #3140557

      Fantastic Icecream

      by dotxen ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      The Italians make fantastic icecream. Forget Baskins, Italian icecream is FOOD for goodness sake! Love the architecture, terrific history and beautiful countryside. Top-deck people too.

      As a senior Customer Solutions Architect working for the planet’s 3rd largest IT company, I can claim some knowledge of the Italian’s exposure and perspective on IT and IT subjects. I work with them, and many other nationalities regularly. The Italians are not exactly at the forefront of technologies, intranet nor Internet. They are clever, skilled but not ‘top-right’corner’ in the Gartner sense.

      This guy’s opinion is typically uninformed, in my experience talking with IT folk in Italy, subjective and gleaned from the ramblings of others. A perfectly acceptable opinion in terms of a catalyst for debate, but the rationale is flawed. He completely ignores that the Web is virtually all Linux and will never go Windows. All virtualisation products are based on Linux as are the leading IP Storage boxes. Almost all enterprises now have a number of Linux boxes appearing in the server-rooms. Large databases are usually hosted by UNIX, not Windows. I could go on and on, but I will spare you the tedium.

      Microsoft/Windows will be the number one on the desktop for the rest of my lifetime. I’m happy with that. But, the back-end, well, that’s different. My opinion, as a Brit’ and for what it’s worth, is simply that Windows cannot continue as the default for the enterprise. Yes for AD, because of it’s obvious advantages, but all the other server services can be much better, more economically, and more efficiently provided by Linux.

      I’m sure that someone will disagree – that’s good too.

      Ringraziamenti per il vostro interesse. Arrivederci.

      • #3140529

        Thanks Robb06

        by sheeva ·

        In reply to Fantastic Icecream

        Your post is closely aligned with my own sentiments. Linux will not disappear, period. The real question is, “Will it ever make to the average home user’s desktop?” This is potentially all MS has left in terms of domination. SuSe is catching on as are other desktop O/Ss. But the reality is, even the desktop in the near future will be irrelevant.

        Today’s new products like FireFox on a USB stick allowing for anonymity (see article http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9588-6118547.html), Google’s product Writely and web-based operating systems like YouOS (https://www.youos.com/) are the harbingers for MS’s death knell at the desktop. Even MS themselves are constantly pushing their version of SaaS. It’s all about the “ether” and not the desktop for the future. This means that no one vendor can possible “monopolize” where, when, how, etc. you access your personal and business life – whether through a desktop PC, a notebook, wireless mobile/PDA, a cell phone, etc.

        At the end of the day, all that matters is the physical and/or ether structure of the internet. And as much as vendors through our politicians, or media(s) through a single vendor (MS or Apple) want to “own and control” it, we’ve already passed the point of no return where they are becoming irrelevant – Italians not withstanding.

      • #3138582

        This is a truly excellent response

        by halibut ·

        In reply to Fantastic Icecream

        Starts with the positives, critiques without condesending remarks, (doesn’t name the person an idiot or moron) and closes with an objective comment. Excellent to see.

        Now I do see some merit in what he says about the world going to terminals to connect to a common web, and running applications without desktops. Internet Security may dictate that this is the only way for computing because a terminal is easier to lock down and to ensure reduction in hacking attempts. So the question is, is Linux going to die because of this? Umm, no I can’t see it. I can see MS having to modify it’s game plan to save itself from extinction. Point blank, Linux Servers run in these setups far better than a comparible windows box.

        My $.02.

        • #3138565

          2018 is still a long way off….

          by xt john ·

          In reply to This is a truly excellent response

          A helluva lot of technological changes will take place before 2018. MP3’s and DVD’s could be the 8-tracks of tommorrow. If the current trends are any indicators, people LIKE having control over their PC, the idea of centralized computing at Google, or wherever will not be received to well, and Linux is rapidly becoming an alternative operating system to Microsoft’s offerings. What if the open soursce community overtakes Microsoft’s AND Apple’s share by then?

        • #3138521

          data security

          by apotheon ·

          In reply to 2018 is still a long way off….

          The main problem with a terminals-only world isn’t even a desire for personal control — it’s a matter of data security and protection of privacy. If all your data is on someone else’s computers, data security and privacy cannot be effectively defended. The government goes from needing a warrant to access it to only needing a subpoena, a single successful security cracking attempt can grab data belonging to thousands of people, and all your data has to be transmitted back and forth between your home system and the server as you work on it — which, of course, provides plenty of extra opportunity for malicious security crackers to intercept the data.

        • #3140301

          True

          by sheeva ·

          In reply to data security

          The statements regarding “dumb terminals” is only too true. However, Apotheon, the crux of it all is in your other statements regarding personal privacy and property.

          Today’s society is only to happy to give all control up just to be safe from “foreseen” and unforeseen terrorists, whether they be abroad or homemade. Now that the current government administration has baldly taken away most of our rights and freedoms – i.e. “The Real ID” – we only have ourselves to look to for both fault and hope.

          Hope that in 2018, the tech is not “dumb terminals” controlled by corporations through government and that grass root ether (internet) societies such as those that are already in the making, stay firm and strong as the last bastions of our great constitution.

          Sorry for waxing lyrical but the very thought of the future 10 years plus down the road has, through past experience, proved that it’s not the big changes that affect our lives but it’s the little ones, like giving up our privacy for security.

        • #3140061

          re: taking away rights and freedoms

          by apotheon ·

          In reply to True

          If you think the READ ID Act is the worst threat to rights and freedoms this year, you must have missed the fact that Congress basically just repealed the Writ of Habeas Corpus.

        • #3141249

          I Did . . .

          by sheeva ·

          In reply to re: taking away rights and freedoms

          . . . miss that – any links?

          But is there anything we can say or do other than, ” Which sewer cover should we meet at a duck out for the next 50 years”? (It won’t matter which political party is in place, once they have the power they don’t give it up for anything.) Are we on the road to Jericho (TV reference) do you think Apotheon?

        • #3141206

          but only for non-citizens…..for now

          by starderup ·

          In reply to re: taking away rights and freedoms

          You don’t think they are going to yank away all our rights and freedoms at once, do you?
          The trick is to nibble away at them slowly, so the fat and lazy populace doesn’t notice while American Idol XXI blares away in the background.

      • #3138296

        Even on the Desktop,

        by j.g.camp ·

        In reply to Fantastic Icecream

        Linux is really a better choice for a corporation. Ubuntu runs Citrix, which will allow Windows applications to be run on the desktop of every corporate user/employee using Linux. Yes, what’s in the server room is a Windows box, but it can be limited to just that whatever Windows servers with Office and other applications since Microsoft shines there. Then we have to ask, when Open Office develops into a total office desktop replacement, the only thing holding it back is MS Access that I can see, but OO is developing their own database. As for Outlook, Evolution is a viable alternative and replacement for the MS product.

    • #3140415

      Let me take the reverse approach

      by nighthawk808 ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      Twelve years ago was 1994. Windows ’95 hadn’t been released yet. Microsoft and IBM were still partners in OS design. The Pentium (the _original_ Pentium) had trouble counting. Only doctors and lawyers had cell phones, and they were car phones then because they were too heavy to carry around. DVD–what’s that? Hard drives were measured in megabytes, and there were still discussions about if it would ever even be possible to create a multigigabyte hard drive small enough to fit in a PC. And there was no doubt memory would never be cheap enough to fit a GB of EDO RAM in a desktop (many motherboards didn’t even support more than 32 MB of RAM). If you were lucky, you could figure out how to configure ISDN and were spoiled by a blazing 0.115 Mb/S connection.

      And, oh yeah, before I forget: Linux was barely out of version 0.x. I’d say that if Linux does half as well in the next 12 years as it has in the last 12 years, Linux will be just fine, thank you.

      Post edited to correct omitted phrase.

    • #3138522

      12 years is an awfully long time in digital terms

      by starderup ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      12 years from now, users will pull out what looks like a sheet of folded paper from their pockets, and as it unfolds, it will pop flat and an image will appear. When the user places his fingers on it, a partially transparent virtual keyboard will appear, allowing him to type. Moving a finger around on it will let the user select objects and launch ‘programs’ which will be integrated into the OS. Gigabit or terabit connectivity will be coast to coast, and you will be no more able to masquerade as someone else to the computer than you will be able to pretend to be someone else’s mom.
      This guy thinks he can see ahead, but he is way off base.

      • #3138421

        To much ego

        by bookkeeper ·

        In reply to 12 years is an awfully long time in digital terms

        First of all it sounds like there is to ego trips flying around this discussion. Second people are always trying to find a better way of doing things and everybody at one time or another would like to see somthing better then the top dog,so as long as these conditions exist i don’t think we will see Linux dieing anytime soon. Signed just an honest opinion

      • #3138420

        To much ego

        by bookkeeper ·

        In reply to 12 years is an awfully long time in digital terms

        First of all it sounds like there is to ego trips flying around this discussion. Second people are always trying to find a better way of doing things and everybody at one time or another would like to see somthing better then the top dog,so as long as these conditions exist i don’t think we will see Linux dieing anytime soon. Signed just an honest opinion

    • #3138285

      It’s in the numbers

      by bryanwilkerson ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      I, for one, was really impressed by the hard numbers used to make the case:

      “…to which you can add about a thousand billion dollars for cinema industry and few other dozens of billions of dollars for music and entertainment industry”

      Hmmm… yeah. I don’t see the connection but I’m guessing the author doesn’t either. This article was so poorly written, even when accounting for English as a second language, I’m going to venture a guess that the author isn’t a professional writer. I’m going to further guess that this person is employed in the fringes of the computer industry – IT or help desk support.

      Isn’t that the beauty of the Internet, an average guy can write a half witted article and here we are all talking about it.

      • #3138267

        Professional writer . . . ?

        by apotheon ·

        In reply to It’s in the numbers

        “[i]I’m going to venture a guess that the author isn’t a professional writer.[/i]”

        Nobody credible publishes at onramp. It’s sort of the vanity press of the Internet.

        • #3139266

          Onramp’s motto

          by nighthawk808 ·

          In reply to Professional writer . . . ?

          “Bringing the thrill of idiots driving 90 MPH in a 7000 pound SUV while talking on their cell phones to a webpage near you!”

        • #3139243

          Hey, that’s catchy.

          by apotheon ·

          In reply to Onramp’s motto

          Are they going to add that to their logo?

        • #3139196

          More importantly can I watch

          by hal 9000 ·

          In reply to Hey, that’s catchy.

          Them as they try to turn a Reverse Camber downhill corner at that speed in those vehicles?

          Provided I don’t have to get my hands dirty by removing them from the wreckage and administering First Aid I’ll enjoy the show. 😀

          Col

    • #3139225

      new programming language??

      by mike ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      If there is going to be a new big programming language, It will be built for linux.

    • #3139162

      Gollum writes on Linux

      by marnusp ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      Oooo… my presioushhhh. We is afraid they will take the precioushhh from usssshhh.

      🙂

    • #3139155

      Linux Desktop

      by kiltie ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      robb06 posted:
      [i]”Microsoft/Windows will be the number one on the desktop for the rest of my lifetime.”[/i]

      I sincerely how you have a MUCH longer lifetime than that.

      Sheeva posed the question:
      [i]”Will it ever make to the average home user’s desktop?”[/i]

      and theoldman59 askes rhetorically:
      [i]”Second, do I expect Linux to be on many desktops in 2018? No, not really.”[/i]

      Well, take look around you.
      Linux not only will be making it to the desktop a decade hence, [b]it already is[/b].

      Don’t believe me?
      Take a look at FrozenTech’s LiveCD List

      http://tinyurl.com/jhp9y

      136 distros listed there (at time of posting) and they don’t even include all of the “big boys” these are just the “LiveCD” implementations.

      I am trying out dozens of them now, and while my personal opinion is thet they are not quite there, they are getting [u]dam well close!![/u]

      Forget trying to forecast a decade or more ahead, only another year or so is all that is needed for some of these distros to knock Windows off its pedestal.

      Add in the huge motivating factors of the mistakes (blunders, maybe) M$ are making with its marketing strategies, I predict that there will be a trend of migration towards Linux, starting NOT 12 years hence, but NOW. The flow of support from Windows to Linux Desktops, will not be an orderly arithmetic one, as a few geeks play around with a new toy, but will be an exponential growth, as word of mouth gets around about what Linux can actually do, especially as these new Desktop distros get the rough edges knocked off them, and become more sophisticated.

      • #3138956

        This will get a major push along

        by hal 9000 ·

        In reply to Linux Desktop

        If MS do as they claim that they will and require [b]Digital Signing[/b] for Software to work on Windows Vista. That could very well be the death knell for MS by limiting the ability of various software houses to provide Cross Platform Support or Product that they where previously providing.

        Incidentally if you want to see a real Windows Killer Desktop Distro have a look at the Corel Linux of about 3 -4 years ago. It installed easily, just worked and would have suited most end users. Though it still required a bit of development and was no where near the heavy duty Nix Distro that many of the others are it was a perfect Desktop Distro for the average End User. That’s probably why MS brought into the company and killed off the Nix adventure of Corel.

        Col

      • #3140308

        Oh, I believe you. It’s been my desktop for years

        by starderup ·

        In reply to Linux Desktop

        Edit: I meant to reply to the post immediately above….
        *************************
        I got off the M$ bus around 2001, when I saw the upgrade prices for W2K. Did RH for a while until they went to the paid model. I would have moved over to Fedora, but I didn’t realize it was there. Anyway, I went back to FreeBSD for some time, and about three years ago paid $35 for SuSE 9.0 Pro. The install was slick, quick and painless. I currently have two Windows installs on my boxes – 98 and Vista RC1. Vista literally takes between 5-10 minutes to present a desktop on the same box that is up and running in about 1 minute under SuSE.
        That’s why as soon as RC1 expires, I’ll be yanking those partitions and downloading the newest version of Linux. 🙂
        There is going to be a lot of complaints once the masses see how bloated of a pig this newest ‘OS’ is. I would venture that at least 25% of the hardware out there is going to be regarded as obsolete RE: Vista. Hopefully, this will help those machines to get exposed to a REAL operating system. :0

      • #3140177

        You are correct, Sir!

        by tig2 ·

        In reply to Linux Desktop

        Less than a year ago, my partner would have never considered Linux in any form. His rationale was that he had made too heavy an investment in Windows. Now he’s watching me play with Puppy and asking questions. He’s watching me TRY to secure MS systems and the footprint required to put good software in place… and looking at the fact that I can boot to Linux, have a safe surf session, and revert the box back to MS by rebooting.

        His conclusion? Burn a CD for him and let him try. He’s a programmer- he figures if he can use it, anyone can.

        While that may be simplistic, to an extent, it’s true.

        I can see a day when Live distros become the choice for non-profits, many of whom get their hardware from a variety of resources. Instead of trying to cope with a myriad of configurations, they only have to learn to cope with a Live CD… that they can take to another work area, re-boot, and be running in a familiar environment.

        Technology has changed dramatically in the years I have been around. I have no doubt that it will continue to change.

      • #3140057

        Linux on the DT needs software

        by theoldman59 ·

        In reply to Linux Desktop

        Yes, Linux is on the DT in limited scenarios with specific applications. Do I expect it to be the powerhouse desktop platform in 2018? Still, NO.

        It lacks software that many need to do their jobs. As technical people (I doubt that many others read this forum), Linux is a viable alternative to the opponent, MS.

        At this point in my career, I work for a large international corp. Is Linux on the DT for my employer? Nowhere in the world. Will it be on the DT anytime soon? No!

        Main reason is the lack of software. We use everything from Office (I hate Word but have to use it anyway) to specialized programs that run on, you guessed it, Windows. No Linux versions available and the vendors won’t touch it with a 10 foot pole.

        You ask why the vendors won’t touch Linux? Simple. They aren’t software houses and the software is considered ancillary to their main product offerings. Everyone uses Windows, so rather than rock the boat and sell something the customer doesn’t understand, they write the software in Windows.

        Almost every Linux supporter seems to hate Microsoft with a passion. Linux is seen as the knight dressed in white that can kill the nasty dragon, MS.

        The Open Source community might want to be careful on concentrating on MS instead of the overall software market. I worked for K-Mart long ago as a high school student. Their marketing and growth plan was aimed at knocking Sears off of their #1 Retailer position.

        If you’ll note, K-Mart and Sears are now one store because both got knocked off by Wal-mart. K-mart wasn’t looking and Wally World clobbered them before they knew what happened.

        Don’t push Linux as an alternative to Windows, make sure it has the software available so people can do more, better, cheaper. Right now, the average user can’t because the software isn’t any better, or doesn’t exist. (Please, Open Office is WORSE than Word in many aspects!)

        Just too many software niches that Linux doesn’t have a good software alternative in. Fill the niches and Linux stands a chance on the DT, but not before.

        • #3140004

          No, Not a knight…

          by dawgit ·

          In reply to Linux on the DT needs software

          It’s just a cute little Penquine, nothing dangerous at all. Desk-top PC with Linux pre-loaded; <300?, with Win >500?, That’s for a business a good reason. Security would be another. Increased productivity might be another.

        • #3282272

          You miss one point

          by theoldman59 ·

          In reply to No, Not a knight…

          To a business, that $200 difference doesn’t mean much. The total life cost of a PC, including a persons time, support staff and other items makes the initial purchase price incidental.

          The costs of retraining to Linux apps, lack of standard apps, etc make the cost of migrating to Linux quite high.

          Remember, no one other than techies experiementing really cares about the OS, they care about the applications they can run on the OS. If the apps are there, then the OS has a chance. If missing even one application that the user needs, Windows wins because it has all the apps currently.

          Microsoft understood that very well.

          Remember OS/2? OS/2 was vastly superior to Win 95, but Win 95 survived. Why? Developer base. IBM charged over $1000 for a Dev Kit. MS gave them away for free and offered incentives. Independant developers wrote the apps on the Win 95 platform and provided a huge program base at launch, with backwards compatibility.

          Linux still hasn’t learned that lesson yet.

        • #3281751

          What?

          by sheeva ·

          In reply to You miss one point

          The new MS licensing for Visual Team Studio is through the roof and that’s regardless of which version you subscribe to.

          Previously it was a Universal Subscription to MSDN on an annual basis. Yes that’s right, annually you had to “repurchase the darn dev tools. Now, the licensing is set up for various levels, i.e. Architect, Developer, etc. but they’re still annual subscriptions and the costs have more than tripled. So I’m not sure what your reference to Linux dev tools is meant to say other than MS was more of a “shark” back then and they don’t feel they have to be now.

          As a business, I can only afford to license one of my developers for the new and improved MSDN Developer’s annual subscription. Where as with the same dollars my whole IT staff and beyond can use the Open Source Open Standards tools such as Eclipse for the IDE, Hibernate, iBatis, Ant, etc. Their training has been minimal since they are all extremely competent individuals. They’re people, no professionals, who don’t mind learning new things and love challenges. I’ve had no problems to date with any of our Open Source Open Standards projects or “boxed” solutions.

          Many of our J2EE/Eclipse projects have taken less than one third the time that the same projects have taken in DOT.NET; and they’re far more scalable, platform independent, more secure and bottom line, cost efficient to develop and support.

          MS has lost it. And with the new O/S Vista (which they hope, no pray, will soon be released) , is destined to make life even more difficult for those who refuse to see the more superior alternative.

          Indeed, Linux may evolve from what it is today. But it won’t ever go away simple because MS says so.

        • #3280638

          Example of how shrewed MS is

          by theoldman59 ·

          In reply to What?

          You complain about licensing costs of developer tools, and rightly so. Why do you use those tools? Because 95% of DT users use MS. It’s worth it to you to buy the tools because MS Owns the DT and they know it.

          Until someone, some group, or some organization finds a way to bring money into the Open Source community as an incentive for software houses to write software for Business and Home Owners, MS will own the whole thing.

        • #3280048

          Now who has lost the point?

          by meesha ·

          In reply to Example of how shrewed MS is

          Just because in “the old days” MS and MS Developers had market dominion does not mean that it translates well into the new reality.

          The only reason anyone would “need” to buy the into the new licensing schema for MSDN subscriptions is because there are still some applications that force you to support in the MS world – but not for long. Open source and open standards have proven to be far more assumable and this is what many software houses are waking up to as they develop more and more applications that aren’t dependant on MS dev tools; especially since most of the “world” is not going Dot.Net.

          MS’s continued FUD and disappreciation of Open Source and Open Standards will only serve to cut off those early MS developers who were “given” freely the MS dev tools.

          There are many, many “for pay” Open Source Open Standards busisenss models. Just because who have not really looked at it from that perspective doesn’t mean you can’t make a very good living from it. I have – I’ve supported a company of over 12 individuals all on Open Source Open Standards – and we’re growing. We’ve all committed to this business model and have no backward glances.

          So will Linux die? No. Will Linux kill MS? No. MS will kill MS – or at least reduce it’s meglomanic monopolistic desire to rule every technological on-line future imaginable. MS is good for competition. I just wish they saw that too.

        • #3280026

          Meesha, people told me that 7 years ago

          by theoldman59 ·

          In reply to Example of how shrewed MS is

          Meesah:
          people were telling me that Open Source and Linux would destroy MS over seven years ago.
          I was late in the game, so I suppose people have been making those claims for over a decade.

          Pardon me for being a little pessimistic about the Open Source front. MS is making more money than ever, and Open Source is making inroads in the Server Room, but not at the expense of MS.

          Linux Servers are replacing HP, SUN and other Unix systems much faster than replacing MS Servers.

          On the DT front, Linux is making almost no inroads, except in incredibly techie communities.

          After seven years of hearing how MS is going down at the feet of Open Source, it’s just getting harder and harder to believe.

          History doesn’t support the statement.

        • #3141209

          The White Knight

          by starderup ·

          In reply to Linux on the DT needs software

          For corporate desktops, you have somewhat of a point, although as someone else pointed out, if you can run Citrix on any desktop, you can put M$ on the server and have 200 Linux clients hanging off it.
          As for home users, I am going to move my wife’s home computer to Ubuntu this weekend. All she needs is a browser, email and if she sees a prettier mahjohgg like this one has, she is all over it.

    • #3280818

      won’t happen !

      by frikkie kotzee ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      What a load of nonsense , There will always be the need for a free , operating system. This dude needs to get the facts straight.

    • #3279910

      His point is about hardware not software or OS

      by officerbill ·

      In reply to Will Linux Die in 2018?

      Most responders seem to be missing the point of his article. The author was talking about hardware based controls not software or systems.
      Software companies have already lost lawsuits based on the fact that their software COULD be used to make illegal copies.
      All it would take would be a couple of suits against hardware manufacturers who allow illegal copying by not designing their product to prevent copying. So you have a CD or DVD burner that reads the format being written and refuses to burn that format. Or sound & video hardware which reads the data and refuses to process it unless it sees the proper permissions.

      Then it won’t matter what OS you run or software you use if the hardware just plain won’t burn or copy.

      • #3221149

        Not happening.

        by tony hopkinson ·

        In reply to His point is about hardware not software or OS

        If there’s money in it and there is, someone will just ‘chip’ it
        You can guarantee there will be some sort of backdoor past it anyway.
        Ignores the market as well. I mean if you can’t burn what you want, why buy the thing in the first place.

        Then there’s fair use, which would be very hard to turn over.
        It’s not as if a new design is required, any body with a soldering iron and a screwdriver could turn out the kit, and any competent coder the software. They’ll take the market and eat the arse out of their competitors as well.

        You only have to look at Sony’s last attempt at this sort of crap, to realise it’s a non starter.

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