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    Will the bubble burst?


    by sankulpune ·

    An European on tour to India happened to visit a Government office. Even after an hour many of the staff having early break. His conversation with a fellow enjoying Sun on the lawns goes something like this:
    “Why are you not working?”
    “You can work hard and earn a lot of money?”
    “So ..”
    “You can then save a lot of money and enjoy in later years”
    “That’s I am doing even now. Why bother?”
    Joke apart, I do find a morale in the story with relevance to pace of technological development in IT.
    I have graduated from the PC-XT with 640 kb RAM and 20 MB hdd to PIII with 120 MB RAM and 10 GB HDD. Pace at which the technology has developed in last 5 years has really been mind-boggling.
    The technology has developed so fast that beforeI could realize the full potential of Pentium and Win95 and Ofice95, P4 & WINDOWS ME & Office2000 are already here. This has created a vicious circle. The software developments force hardware development that in turn forces software enhancement. User is forced to use higher capabilities before he has time to think whether what he is using is trully appropriate to his need. This has increased the rate of obsolescence and disturbed the economic and social balance. I am worried this may result in social upheaval and many other inter-related problems.
    My point is not that these developments are not needed. They definitely have a place. But I am worried about its economic & social sustainability in the long term. By the law of nature, what rises fast also comes down fast.
    I think, the time has come to put breaks on the pace of development so that it has more relevance to the vast majority of non-expert uses and they are capable of assimilating it and are technically and psychologically ready for the advances.
    Otherwise, I fear, as in the case of stocks, the bubble may burst and sooner rather than later …

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