Mark Zuckerberg’s next platform bet may be a game of predicting what happens next.
Meta’s CEO has directed a small internal team to build a smartphone app similar to platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The app, internally known as “Arena,” is still in development and has been described as experimental but a top priority. It reflects Meta’s effort to tap into new online behaviors as traditional social media growth slows.
Prediction markets, platforms where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections, sports results, or policy decisions, have surged in popularity in recent years. Rivals like Polymarket and Kalshi have become major players in the space, with billions of dollars in trading activity and growing attention from both investors and regulators.
What ‘Arena’ would look like
According to The New York Times, the app would likely rely on a video game-style points system rather than real-money betting at launch. However, Meta has not ruled out introducing real-money wagering in the future.
The product would allow users to make predictions on events ranging from sports outcomes to political developments, earning points based on accuracy. Meta is also expected to use its massive social media footprint, over 3.5 billion daily active users, to drive adoption of the new app.
Meta’s push beyond social media
Arena is part of a wider strategy inside Meta to build standalone apps that reflect emerging internet trends. The company is also working on other experimental products, including a separate app reportedly called Meta Photos, which focuses on creating new forms of media using AI.
This approach highlights Zuckerberg’s ongoing pattern of identifying fast-growing competitors and quickly developing similar products. Meta has previously followed this strategy with features inspired by Snapchat, TikTok, and other platforms.
However, past efforts to launch standalone apps have had mixed results. Earlier experiments under Meta’s New Product Experimentation group struggled to gain traction, largely due to challenges in attracting users outside the company’s core ecosystem, The New York Times reported.
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A second attempt at prediction markets
Arena would not be Meta’s first attempt at prediction markets. According to The New York Times, the company launched an app called Forecast in 2020 that allowed users to predict world events using a points system. That app was shut down in 2022 after failing to gain widespread adoption.
The timing of Meta’s renewed interest comes as prediction markets have rapidly evolved into a major financial and cultural phenomenon. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have expanded into mainstream awareness, particularly during major political and sports events, and have seen trading volumes reach tens of billions of dollars annually.
An uncertain future
Meta has not confirmed the project publicly and has declined to comment on reports about Arena.
Sources cited by The New York Times caution that the app is still in early development and may never launch. But the move signals that Meta is actively exploring ways to stay competitive in emerging digital markets, especially those tied to prediction, gaming, and financial-style engagement.
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